126 FXUS61 KPBZ 310722 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 222 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Light snow early this morning may cause minor travel issues. A new disturbance this afternoon into early New Year's Day will bring accumulating snow and widespread impacts, especially in the ridges. Snow tapers of Thursday morning, with quieter, drier conditions expected Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Light snow early this morning, with accumulations of about 0.5 to 1.5 inches. - Cold conditions continue --------------------------------------------------------------- Light snow is moving through the region early this morning. Surface observations from nearby airports show visibilities between 2 and 4 miles, with lowest values across eastern Ohio. The snow is tied to a passing shortwave within a broad Northeast trough. Snowfall rates show remain light given weak frontogenesis, generally around 0.1 to 0.3 inches per hour. Upslope flow may enhance snowfall along the ridges between 5am and 9am, with elevations above 3,000ft in West Virginia; potentially reaching near 2 inches by late morning. Elsewhere, accumulations are expected to range from 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Snow character will be very dry and fluffy given snow ratios ranging from 17:1 to 19:1. Temperatures remain above 5 degrees below average early this morning, with wind chill values in the teens to single digits. && .SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Travel impacts are expected to increase due to snow late today into early Thursday; Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in effect - Snow amounts in lower elevations will likely range from 2 to 4 inches; ridges are expecting 6 to 9 inches - Heavy snow expected with advancing bands/squalls - Snow chances decrease from north to south before dawn Thursday ---------------------------------------------------------------- A departing shortwave to the south may bring a brief lull in snow from about 10am to 2pm. Another stronger shortwave and its associated cold front will then move south through the Great Lakes, increasing snow chances by early afternoon and continuing into Thursday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning remain in effect for accumulating snow amounts and travel impacts across the region. Periods of heavy snow are likely in the vicinity of the cold front, with banded snowfall rates potentially reaching 1" per hour. The greatest risk for these impactful bands is between 7pm Wednesday and 2am Thursday, moving from north to south. Lower elevations are expecting to receive around 2 to 5 inches of snow, while enhanced orographic lift will bring higher totals of roughly 6 to 9 inches across the Laurel Highlands and eastern West Virginia ridges. Confidence is high that snow will be light and fluffy, with high snow ratios between 18:1 and 21:1. End times for winter products may need to be shortened for portions of the area as advancing dry air reduces snowfall rates and impacts. Behind the front, northwest flow will likely sustain lake-effect snow showers north of Pittsburgh through the late afternoon. Temperatures will remain below average Thursday afternoon by 15 degrees due to the passage of the cold front, with 850mb temperatures falling from -10 Celsius after midnight to -20 Celsius shortly before dawn. Wind chill values will fall into the single digits to below freezing on Thursday, making post- storm shoveling comfortable. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Mostly quiet conditions Thursday night into Friday - Cold continues - Confidence remains high that the weekend will be free of winter weather impacts ------------------------------------------------------------------- Long-range model guidance favors generally quiet weather from Friday through Monday. A few isolated snow showers are possible Friday morning near I-80 corridor, through impacts are not expected. Multiple models indicate an elongated trough persisting over the weekend, which will keep temperatures below average while a large-scale ridge builds over the Rocky Mountains. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - MVFR cigs through the morning with light snow. - Light snow tapers off this morning before a heavier round and worsening restrictions this afternoon and overnight. ------------------------------------------------------------ Deterioration to MVFR cigs is ongoing as another round of light snow returns. Minor additional accumulations are expected at all terminals through sunrise. Snow will taper off through the morning with continued MVFR cigs, before heavier snow and the potential for snow squalls/banding with a crossing cold front this evening. Cigs and vis will begin to deteriorate after 21z, though light snow and minor vis restrictions will be possible as early as 18z. Significant snow should rapidly shut off after 06z Thursday with dry advection behind the front, but light snow along the I-80 corridor and flurries elsewhere may continue. Westerly winds relax somewhat overnight, potentially losing the gusts but holding around 7-10 knots sustained. Gusts return during the day Wednesday, especially with the onset of snow in the afternoon and evening. Outlook... High pressure brings VFR conditions and dry weather back to the area Thursday and Friday except for FKL/DUJ where minor restrictions could linger through the end of the week due to passing lake-effect snow showers. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075- 077-078. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ074-076. OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for OHZ039>041-049-050-059-069. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ001>004-012-021-509. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ510>514. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...Hefferan SHORT TERM...Hefferan LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley