208 FXUS61 KPBZ 310529 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1229 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Another shot of lighter intensity snow occurs overnight tonight with light accumulations. A further shot of snow and possible squalls occurs Wednesday afternoon continuing into the early morning hours of Thursday. Breezy and cold conditions stay with us into the new year. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Another quick push of light snow overnight, with light accumulations --------------------------------------------------------------- Snow showers can linger longer and possibly through the night along and north of the I-80 corridor closer to the lake influence. Another shortwave builds through the flow and rounds the base of the trough again overnight increasing the chance for snow. This snowfall is expected to be a lighter intensity than the banded snow showers we saw today. As such accumulations are expected to range from a coating to an inch or so tonight through the early morning hours of Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Snow New Years Eve into New Years Day; Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in effect for portions of the region - Cold conditions continue ---------------------------------------------------------------- Snow will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning as another shortwave crosses the region. Snowfall rates will likely with 95th percentile hourly amounts max out at 0.4" A brief lull in snowfall is possible late morning / early afternoon, before a digging trough and associated front begins to impact the region. This will return widespread snow to the region as the strong front crosses New Year's Eve into early New Year's Day. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued that runs from early afternoon until mid Thursday morning for the ridges of WV and PA where totals of six to eight inches are possible due to enhanced orographic lift. Elsewhere, snowfall amounts of two to four inches are expected in general along with some locally higher amounts. Model guidance indicates rapidly moving snow bands with periods of enhanced frontogenesis, and very high snow squall parameter rates along the front. With this and the less than ideal timing (roughly 7PM to 2AM), along with the overall snow forecast in general in the lower elevations, with this and the less than ideal timing (roughly 7PM to 2AM), a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the same period as the Warning. Advancing dry air from the Midwest will likely decrease snow intensity just before dawn on New Years Day. Quieter conditions look promising New Years afternoon and evening with zonal flow. Below-average temperatures will continue during this forecast time period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Mostly quiet conditions Thursday night into Friday - Cold continues - Confidence remains high that the weekend will be free of winter weather impacts ------------------------------------------------------------------- Long-range model guidance favors generally quiet weather from Friday through Monday. A few isolated snow showers are possible Friday morning near I-80 corridor, through impacts are not expected. Multiple models indicate an elongated trough persisting over the weekend, which will keep temperatures below average while a large-scale ridge builds over the Rocky Mountains. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - MVFR cigs through the morning with light snow. - Light snow tapers off this morning before a heavier round and worsening restrictions this afternoon and overnight. ------------------------------------------------------------ Deterioration to MVFR cigs is ongoing as another round of light snow returns. Minor additional accumulations are expected at all terminals through sunrise. Snow will taper off through the morning with continued MVFR cigs, before heavier snow and the potential for snow squalls/banding with a crossing cold front this evening. Cigs and vis will begin to deteriorate after 21z, though light snow and minor vis restrictions will be possible as early as 18z. Significant snow should rapidly shut off after 06z Thursday with dry advection behind the front, but light snow along the I-80 corridor and flurries elsewhere may continue. Westerly winds relax somewhat overnight, potentially losing the gusts but holding around 7-10 knots sustained. Gusts return during the day Wednesday, especially with the onset of snow in the afternoon and evening. Outlook... High pressure brings VFR conditions and dry weather back to the area Thursday and Friday except for FKL/DUJ where minor restrictions could linger through the end of the week due to passing lake-effect snow showers. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075- 077-078. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ074-076. OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for OHZ039>041-049-050-059-069. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ001>004-012-021-509. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ510>514. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AK NEAR TERM...AK SHORT TERM...Hefferan/88 LONG TERM...Hefferan/88 AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley