943 FXUS61 KPBZ 301847 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 147 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Banded snow showers continue into the afternoon today, slowly shifting northward and losing organization. Another shot of lighter intensity snow occurs overnight tonight with light accumulations. A further shot of snow and possible squalls occurs Wednesday afternoon continuing into the early morning hours of Thursday. Breezy and cold conditions stay with us into the new year. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Banded snow showers slowly shift north and lose organization this afternoon - Another quick push of light snow overnight, with light accumulations - Below average temperatures through tonight --------------------------------------------------------------- Ongoing banded snow showers continue across the region at this time. The most persistent band, that dropped near 10" of snow in places, is slowly meandering north as winds veer. This is expected to continue, as bands shift northerly they will slowly lose their moisture connection back to Lake Michigan and are expected to slowly wind down. In the meantime, these bands can continue to bring quick snowfall accumulations to those under them and reduced visibility that can make travel across the region hazardous this afternoon. Snow showers can linger longer and possibly through the night along and north of the I-80 corridor closer to the lake influence. Temperatures remain below average today, with highs in the low to mid-20s. Wind chill values peak later this afternoon in the low to mid teens across the lowlands with values in the single digits in the higher terrain. Another shortwave builds through the flow and rounds the base of the trough again overnight raising snow chances after 8pm. This snowfall is expected to be a lighter intensity than the banded snow showers we saw today. As such accumulations are expected to range from a coating to an inch or so late this evening through the early morning hours of Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Snow New Years Eve into New Years Day; Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in effect for portions of the region - Cold conditions continue ---------------------------------------------------------------- Snow will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning as another shortwave crosses the region. Snowfall rates will likely with 95th percentile hourly amounts max out at 0.4" A brief lull in snowfall is possible late morning / early afternoon, before a digging trough and associated front begins to impact the region. This will return widespread snow to the region as the strong front crosses New Year's Eve into early New Year's Day. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued that runs from early afternoon until mid Thursday morning for the ridges of WV and PA where totals of six to eight inches are possible due to enhanced orographic lift. Elsewhere, snowfall amounts of two to four inches are expected in general along with some locally higher amounts. Model guidance indicates rapidly moving snow bands with periods of enhanced frontogenesis, and very high snow squall parameter rates along the front. With this and the less than ideal timing (roughly 7PM to 2AM), along with the overall snow forecast in general in the lower elevations, with this and the less than ideal timing (roughly 7PM to 2AM), a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the same period as the Warning. Advancing dry air from the Midwest will likely decrease snow intensity just before dawn on New Years Day. Quieter conditions look promising New Years afternoon and evening with zonal flow. Below-average temperatures will continue during this forecast time period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Mostly quiet conditions Thursday night into Friday - Cold continues - Confidence remains high that the weekend will be free of winter weather impacts ------------------------------------------------------------------- Long-range model guidance favors generally quiet weather from Friday through Monday. A few isolated snow showers are possible Friday morning near I-80 corridor, through impacts are not expected. Multiple models indicate an elongated trough persisting over the weekend, which will keep temperatures below average while a large-scale ridge builds over the Rocky Mountains. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - MVFR with pockets of VFR continue through this afternoon - Banded snow showers to slowly shift northward and lose intensity - Snow returns overnight and then tapers before more snow arrives tomorrow afternoon ------------------------------------------------------------ Banded snow showers continue early this afternoon. The heaviest band has shifted north of PIT and fractured some at this time. Bands are expected to continue shifting northward over the coming hours and slowly losing organization. Until that time, VIS in the heaviest bands can be as low as a mile in spots and MVFR CIGs become more likely. As the bands shift northward, a slow return to general VFR is expected from S to N. The buck likely stops before reaching FKL/DUJ which could continue to see banded snow showers closer to the lake as winds veer across the region. An additional shortwave brings another burst of organized snow beginning between 04-08z returns VIS restrictions back south of I- 80. Modeling favors this burst of snow tapering from NW to SE between 10-14z but modeling sometimes ends snow showers too quickly. Westerly surface winds remain gusty through the period remaining between 15-25 knots this afternoon. Some calmer conditions are possible overnight before winds pick up again tomorrow afternoon and can gust between 20-30 knots once again. Another, more intense push of snow begins late tomorrow afternoon into the evening. At this time this push of snow has been included as a 17z line in most TAFs to highlight this event but the actual onset time is likely later at these ports. PIT's 30 hour TAF period allows for a more accurate start time of that snow. Outlook... Restrictions continue through Wed/Thurs with occasional snow under upper troughing and cold W-NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075- 077-078. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ074-076. OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for OHZ039>041-049-050-059-069. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ001>004-012-021-509. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ510>514. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AK NEAR TERM...AK SHORT TERM...Hefferan/88 LONG TERM...Hefferan/88 AVIATION...AK