022 FXUS61 KPBZ 301131 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 631 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers and a few squalls continue into the early morning hours. Significant snows are expected again in the ridges New Years Eve and New Years Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Snow showers and a few snow squalls continue through dawn - Brief ridging in the afternoon will decrease snow shower activity - Snow chances increase after dark with a new shortwave over the Great Lakes --------------------------------------------------------------- Light to occasionally intense snow showers/squalls are moving through the region early this morning. Narrow snow bands--only a few miles wide-- may produce localized accumulations of one- half inch to one inch in as little as one to two hours. These bands are likely tied to increasing moisture form Lake Erie and Michigan in associated with a large-scale disturbance crossing the Northeast. Areas experiencing persistent or training bands will likely see travel impacts on both primary and secondary roads early this morning. As brief ridging develops late this morning into early afternoon, snow intensity should diminish. Temperatures will remain below average today, with highs generally in the low to mid-20s. Wind chill values will range from the teens to below zero; with low values in the higher terrain. Snow chances increase again after 8pm as another shortwave moves southeast across the Great Lakes. Additional light accumulations, ranging from a dusting to one-half inch, are expected late this evening through around midnight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Snow New Years Eve into New Years Day; Winter Storm Watch in effect for portions of the region - Winter Weather Advisory likely for lower elevations - Cold conditions continue ---------------------------------------------------------------- Snow will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning with the aforementioned shortwave in the near term discussion; a half inch to an inch of snow is expected through dawn. Snowfall rates will likely stay below a half inch per hour; ranging between 0.1"/hr to 0.3"/hr. A brief lull in snowfall is possible Wednesday afternoon as short-lived ridging builds over eastern Ohio. However, this quieter period is expected to last only around six hours, as a stronger shortwave and its associated front move across Lake Erie and track south, allowing widespread snow to redevelop New Year's Eve evening into early New Year's Day. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the potential of significant snowfall, with totals of six to eight inches possible due to enhanced upslope flow. Elsewhere, snowfall amounts of two to four inches are expected and will likely warrant a Winter Weather Advisory in a future update. High- resolution model guidance indicates rapidly moving snow bands with periods of enhanced frontogenesis, which could result in brief intense bursts of moderate to heavy snow between 7pm Wednesday to 2am Thursday. Advancing dry air from the Midwest will likely decrease snow intensity just before dawn on New Years Day. Quieter conditions look promising New Years afternoon and evening with zonal flow. Below-average temperatures will continue during this forecast time period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Mostly quiet conditions Thursday night into Friday - Cold continues - Confidence remains high that the weekend will be free of winter weather impacts ------------------------------------------------------------------- Long-range model guidance favors generally quiet weather from Friday through Monday. A few isolated snow showers are possible Friday morning near I-80 corridor, through impacts are not expected. Multiple models indicate an elongated trough persisting over the weekend, which will keep temperatures below average while a large-scale ridge builds over the Rocky Mountains. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - MVFR ceilings through most of the period - Snow showers taper off early this morning - Periodic restrictions and snow showers continue through midweek as the pattern remains cold and active ------------------------------------------------------------ Banded snow showers continue early this morning. The heaviest band currently sits south of PIT and north of HLG and has remained rather stationary over the last few hours. VIS in this band is as low as 3/4SM. Banded snow is expected to continue for most ports besides ZZV through the morning hours before tapering closer to midday. Showers will tape off from south to north but linger into the afternoon along the I-80 corridor. High end MVFR CIGs look to continue for most with pockets of VFR. MVFR conditions likely continue as the rule rather than the exception through much of the current TAF period. An additional shortwave brings another burst of organized snow beginning between 04-08z returns VIS restrictions back south of I- 80. Westerly surface winds remain gusty through the period, albeit gradually weakening as we move through the day and gusts down from 25-35 knots overnight to 20-30 knots by this afternoon. Outlook... Restrictions continue through Wed/Thurs with occasional snow under upper troughing and cold W-NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ007>009-015-016-074-076-078. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for PAZ076. OH...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ510>514. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for WVZ510>514. High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ514. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...Hefferan SHORT TERM...Hefferan LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...Rackley/AK