015 FXUS61 KPBZ 300545 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1245 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers and a few squalls continue early this morning, with accumulations lingering into the afternoon for the I 80 corridor and in the higher terrain. Significant snows are expected again in the ridges New Years Eve and New Years Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Lake effect snow showers possible with weakening rates tonight. - Strong wind gusts will begin to weaken during the overnight hours. - Dry conditions Tuesday. --------------------------------------------------------------- Wind and gusts will gradually weaken through the overnight hours into tomorrow morning as the surface low moves to the northeast. Expect gusts to continue easing throughout the day as a high pressure moves just south of the area. Rates from some of the lake effect bands are expected to decrease into the overnight hours with snowfall tapering off by early Tuesday morning. Conditions are forecast to be dry Tuesday afternoon due to subsidence between short wave troughs. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Quick-moving disturbance provides light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning - Stronger system likely to provide impactful snow accumulation across much of the region New Years Eve into New Years Day - Continued cold ---------------------------------------------------------------- The next shortwave drops across the region in northwest flow aloft Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture remains fairly limited with this clipper-like system, and low-level flow has a WSW component that will limit any lake influence. Thus, snow totals from this disturbance are projected to be light, totaling perhaps an inch or two in spots. Another relative lull in snow is possible Wednesday afternoon, before a more significant shortwave trough and reinforcing cold front drop in from the Great Lakes for New Years Eve into New Years Day. Renewed cold advection and WNW flow will likely add lake and upslope influences. There may even be upper support from the left exit region of an upper jet diving into the Middle Ohio Valley. Along with better moisture, this sets the stage for an accumulating snow across the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Current first- guess snow totals would have 6-7 inches in the ridges from Fayette County on south, and 2-5 inches elsewhere. Given these totals and the potential impact to holiday festivities, a Winter Storm Watch is being issued for the ridge zones from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Snow would then begin to taper off Thursday afternoon as lingering lake effect/upslope snow showers. Temperatures will remain cold through the period, with readings 10 to 15 degrees below average. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Cold temperatures continue - Less active weather over the weekend ------------------------------------------------------------------- Any lingering snow showers should end Thursday night as low-level flow backs to the west and southwest. Models continue to indicate a longwave trough across the eastern CONUS through the period, becoming less amplified by the weekend. Precipitation chances will be fairly low through the weekend, although Great Lakes low pressure may provide the next chance of precipitation by Monday. Some moderation in temperatures is also expected over the weekend, though readings should still remain below average for the most part through the weekend. Temperatures may attempt to reach towards climatology on Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - MVFR ceilings through most of the period - Snow showers taper off early this morning - Periodic restrictions and snow showers continue through midweek as the pattern remains cold and active ------------------------------------------------------------ Widespread snow continues early this morning, with several enhanced bands of snow impacting the PIT/AGC/LBE/HLG area. Restrictions in the heaviest bands have generally dropped to 1/2SM with ceilings around 900 ft. This will taper off in the next few hours from north to south, with the only lingering snow showers by 12z Tuesday being north of PIT and in the ridges. Showers do eventually end over the ridges this morning, but lake-effect activity lingers north of I-80 through the afternoon. MVFR cig restrictions should continue through the period except for minor improvement to VFR at MGW and ZZV this evening. Additional light snow is expected to arrive between 00-06z Wednesday as MVFR cigs and vis restrictions continue. Westerly surface winds remain gusty through the period, albeit gradually weakening as gusts trend more towards 25-35 knots overnight and 20-30 knots by this afternoon. Outlook... Restrictions continue through Wed/Thurs with occasional snow under upper troughing and cold W-NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ007>009-015-016-074-076-078. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for PAZ076. OH...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ510>514. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for WVZ510>514. High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ514. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Craven NEAR TERM...Lupo SHORT TERM...CL LONG TERM...CL AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley