092 

FXUS63 KPAH 281114

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

514 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- There is a 50-65% chance of precip across the Quad State

  Sunday night. Along and north of I-64 could possibly see some

  accumulating snowfall on grassy or elevated surfaces. Little

  to no impacts are expected due to warm antecedent conditions.

  



- A major pattern shift is in store for next week to more

  unsettled conditions. Near daily chances for rain exist with a

  decent signal for beneficial rainfall with a 60-85% chance of

  seeing over 0.5".



- With the pattern shift, temperatures will return to being

  above normal next week through the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 120 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Another warm day is in store today before a cold front comes through 

early tomorrow morning. Expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s 

today. Elevated fire weather danger is possible in the Mark Twain 

portions of the Ozark Foothills again this afternoon. Tonight there 

is a small (about 20%) chance of some rain over the Evansville Tri-

State and surrounding areas. Highs on Sunday will be cooler and much 

closer to normal (15-20 degrees colder than today). 



Flow aloft becomes a lot more zonal as the cold front stalls out 

just to our south. A small area of PVA moves through along the 

boundary/weak deformation zone, coupled with a weak inverted trof 

with over running moisture. This set up Sunday night brings a 50-65% 

chance for precipitation across the Quad State. Compared to previous 

model runs, temperatures have trended down 2-3 degrees. This is most 

impactful along and north of the I-64 corridor where there is now 

the possibility of accumulating snowfall on elevated and grassy 

surfaces. Minimal impacts are expected given the warm antecedent 

conditions. Also, ensembles have been flip-flopping on the 

temperatures and they may very well flip back to the warmer 

solutions. The greatest chance for snowfall is in the 09-15Z 

range Monday with warming after that. SLRs look to be around the

7/8:1 range, so a very wet snow and possibly a mix at times. 



After Monday there is a major pattern shift to a much more unsettled 

pattern, though there are still quite a few discrepancies to work 

out such as timing and amounts. Temperatures will warm again to 

above average through the weekend. There is agreement at multiple 

disturbances moving through which will bring near daily chances for 

precip Monday onward ranging from at least 30% to around 70% at 

times. Beneficial rain is in store with a 60-85% chance of seeing 

over 0.5" of rain Tuesday through Thursday. There is also a 30-70% 

chance of seeing over 1" of rain during this same time period. The 

greatest chances are in northern portions of SEMO, southern IL,

and southwest IN.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 511 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Light and

variable winds expected through the morning and then picking up

slightly out of the south and southwest this afternoon before

dropping back to light and variable again in the evening and

overnight.



A cold front is expected to come through late in the period and

will bring ahead of it and with it a BKN upper level cloud deck.

Winds will also shift around to the northwest and pick up to

around 10 kts. 



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...HICKFORD

AVIATION...HICKFORD