135 

FXUS63 KPAH 310725

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

125 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures will continue to moderate to around normal 

  values today through this weekend. 



- Quiet weather will open the new year, but a disturbance will

  bring a small chance (15 to 30%) of light rain Friday 

  afternoon and evening to locations along the Arkansas-Missouri

  and Kentucky- Tennessee borders. 



- Temperatures will warm well-above normal by early next week,

  with a 50 to 90% chance of high temperatures over 50 degrees 

  Monday and Tuesday. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 125 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025



Chilly and dry northwest H5 flow will continue today through

this weekend. A clipper system will pass northeast of the 

region tonight, and a dry cold front will bring an increase in 

cloud cover and brief shift to NW surface winds to open the new 

year. Temperatures today through Sunday will will be near to 

slightly above normal.



A weak disturbance will develop over the southern Great Plains

Thursday and lift northeast through the Tennessee Valley on

Friday. This system will bring a small chance (15-30%) of rain

showers to the locations along AR/MO and KY/TN borders Friday

afternoon into Friday evening. The trend in the ensemble 

guidance has been towards a weaker system with a track staying 

further south, and if this trend continues mentionable rain

chance may stay south of the region. Latest NBM ensemble

guidance only gives a 10-30% chance of rainfall amounts on

Friday over 0.10", mainly along the KY/TN border. 



H5 troughing will yield to increasing ridging and surface high

pressure becoming centered over the region this weekend into 

early next week. This will bring a return of dry conditions 

through the rest of the forecast period. Additionally, as the

surface high translates east of the region, a significant warm

up is forecast Monday and Tuesday. NBM ensemble guidance shows a

50-90% chance of high temperatures above 50 degrees both days. 





&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1122 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



Mid-level clouds are tracking over the northeastern corner of

the Quad State at this time, expected to pull north of the

forecast area. Winds generally remain westerly through the

forecast period, becoming light in the evening. Mid and upper

level clouds move in from the north during the afternoon hours,

with coverage decreasing in the evening.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...DWS

AVIATION...ATL