185 FXUS63 KPAH 301726 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly and blustery weather will continue today, with a 70-100% of high temperatures staying in the 30s. - A warming trend is forecast to end 2025 and open 2026 with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s forecast Friday into early next week. - A weak disturbance will move through the Tennessee River Valley on Friday, bringing a chance of light rain showers (25-50%) mainly to southeast Missouri and western Kentucky. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Chilly NW H5 flow will keep cold and blustery conditions over the region today. Cloud cover will be stubborn to clear across the EVV Tri-State (and may produce a try flurry), but mostly sunny skies are expected elsewhere. NBM ensemble guidance strongly favors (70-100%) high temperatures only reaching the 30s again across the most of the region. As H5 flow becomes more zonal, temperatures will moderate and warm the rest of the week and through the weekend. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with temperatures being roughly 5-10 degrees above normal, yielding high temperatures in the middle 40s and lower 50s Friday through Monday. A weak disturbance will develop across the southern Great Plains and lift NE across the Tennessee Valley on Friday. This will bring a chance of light rain showers. The best chance of rain showers (25-50%) will be across the MO Bootheel through much of western KY. Further north and west, rain chances will be lower, only around 10-25%. Any rain that falls will be only the light side, with NBM ensemble guidance only showing a 10-30% of any part of the forecast area receiving more than 0.25" of rain or more between 12z Friday and 12z Saturday. H5 heights will rise following the passage of the system, with dry and mild conditions for the first weekend of 2026 into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 The TAFs are VFR. Winds will be at or below 10kts generally from the west this afternoon and again with mixing in the morning. Tonight a light southwest wind is expected and that could lead to a LLWS concern across the northern sites in the 03Z-09Z time frame. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...ATL/DWS DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DRS