507 FXUS63 KPAH 301121 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 521 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly and blustery weather will continue today, with a 70-100% of high temperatures staying in the 30s. - A warming trend is forecast to end 2025 and open 2026 with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s forecast Friday into early next week. - A weak disturbance will move through the Tennessee River Valley on Friday, bringing a chance of light rain showers (25-50%) mainly to southeast Missouri and western Kentucky. && .UPDATE... Issued at 520 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Chilly NW H5 flow will keep cold and blustery conditions over the region today. Cloud cover will be stubborn to clear across the EVV Tri-State (and may produce a try flurry), but mostly sunny skies are expected elsewhere. NBM ensemble guidance strongly favors (70-100%) high temperatures only reaching the 30s again across the most of the region. As H5 flow becomes more zonal, temperatures will moderate and warm the rest of the week and through the weekend. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with temperatures being roughly 5-10 degrees above normal, yielding high temperatures in the middle 40s and lower 50s Friday through Monday. A weak disturbance will develop across the southern Great Plains and lift NE across the Tennessee Valley on Friday. This will bring a chance of light rain showers. The best chance of rain showers (25-50%) will be across the MO Bootheel through much of western KY. Further north and west, rain chances will be lower, only around 10-25%. Any rain that falls will be only the light side, with NBM ensemble guidance only showing a 10-30% of any part of the forecast area receiving more than 0.25" of rain or more between 12z Friday and 12z Saturday. H5 heights will rise following the passage of the system, with dry and mild conditions for the first weekend of 2026 into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Lingering MVFR low stratus will exit the OWB area by 15z. Otherwise, only high and mid-level cloud decks are expected the rest of the forecast period. Winds this morning will be steady from the NW at 6-12 kts with gusts up to 15-20 kts possible at EVV. Winds will relax to around 4-7 kts this afternoon and tonight and shift to the W-WSW. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS