216 FXUS64 KOUN 291900 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Hot and breezy conditions to continue this week. - Very low chances for thunderstorms across far western Oklahoma during the evening hours today & Tuesday; strong-damaging winds possible. - Early signs for upcoming holiday weekend: Continued hot temperatures and low chances for rain/storms (north/west Oklahoma). && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 The hot, windy and very low storm risk (far western Oklahoma) pattern continues as we begin a new work week. Afternoon heat indices will again peak in the 100-105 F range today, though spatiotemporal extent of headline-worthy readings is expected to remain limited, and confined to far northern Oklahoma. Breezy south-southwesterly winds will also aid in keeping WBGT risk in check (low-moderate category) through sunset. While storm activity the past few evenings has remained quite limited, and confined strictly to the Texas Panhandle, we look to introduce slightly higher (still ~20%) chances for storms near the 100th meridian later this evening. Strong-damaging wind gusts will be possible, especially if deeper thunderstorm cores can develop/persist near the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border. Ungar && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Our hot and breezy weather pattern will persist for much of the upcoming week, as the region remains placed between an upper ridge across the Tennessee Valley and slowly-dissipating upper trough across the Intermountain West. Seasonable (mid to upper-90s) temperatures and continued breezy conditions will offer generally sub-105 F heat indices/low-moderate WBGT risk on Tuesday and Wednesday. Perhaps the most concerning aspect of early week heat will be continued warm temperatures during the nighttime hours, with potential for record "warm lows", especially in Oklahoma on Wednesday morning. Diurnal convective chances will persist near and east of a thermal ridge/weak dryline feature from far western Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Most areas will remain dry, though some residual storms/strong wind potential may approach our area each evening near and after sunset. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 High temperatures trend upward Thursday through Saturday as mid-level heights rise with the expansion of the ridge across the southern two- thirds of the country. Highs of 100 to 105 degrees are forecast to be widespread by July 4th with low chances of showers and thunderstorms returning late Friday and into the weekend. A cold front could move into northern Oklahoma late Saturday or early Sunday which will dial down the intensity of the heat just a bit on Sunday. Thompson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions with some mid and high clouds. Gusty winds S to SW winds this afternoon becoming S to SE tonight with a slight reduction in speed but still breezy. Gusty S to SW winds expected again Tuesday. LLWS expected again tonight as LLJ strengthens. A few storms may move into parts of W OK this evening this activity is currently expected to remain W of KWWR and KCSM but may get close. Even if the storms do not make the TAF site, gusty variable winds out of a storm may affect one of these TAF sites this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 94 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 77 96 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 79 96 76 96 / 30 20 20 0 Ponca City OK 78 93 76 94 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 77 94 78 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...25