803 FXUS66 KOTX 290720 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1220 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wetting rains for eastern WA and north ID including over 1.00" of rain in the mountains of ID. - Thunderstorms in northeast WA and north ID Monday afternoon. && .SYNOPSIS... A band of rain is expected to impact much of the Inland Northwest overnight into Monday. On Monday afternoon and evening, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over north ID and northeast WA. Cooler than normal conditions continue through the week with isolated mountain shower activity. By the weekend, a ridge will build bringing temperatures back up to normal in time for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Monday through Tuesday: Bands of rain are moving through the Inland Northwest and will continue to do so through late Monday night, with the exception of the Northern Mountains and the Idaho Panhandle. For much of the area, these rains will be beneficial, with ~0.10 inches expected from Colville down to Spokane and eastward. Highest rainfall totals will be seen in the Idaho Panhandle due to its closer proximity to the upper level low. Rainfall totals in Shoshone County could reach 1.0 to 1.25 inches. This area will be monitored for any urban and small stream flooding. In addition to the rainfall, in the afternoon and evening there is a chance (20 to 30 percent) for thunderstorms due to elevated instability in the Northern Mountains, northern ID Panhandle. There is a lesser chance in the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area (10 to 20 percent). High-res models favor a couple hundred Joules of CAPE, high PWATs of over 1 inch, and slow storm motion at around 10 kts. When combining high PWATs with low storm motions, main concerns with thunderstorms will be isolated heavy rainfall alongside small hail and lightning. This will be monitored closely for any flooding issues, alongside any storms that pass over burn scars. Maximum temperatures across the Inland Northwest remain lower than normal by 5-10 degrees and will remain in the low 70s to low 80s. Minimum temperatures also remain below normal in the low 40s to low 50s. Wednesday through Friday: The middle to the end of the work week will be relatively dry apart from showers in the mountains due to orographic lift as lower heights remain over the area. Temperatures will continue to be cooler than normal, though a weak ridge moving closer to the coast near the end of the week will allow for some warming. Holiday Weekend: Clusters near the holiday weekend begin showing signals for said ridge strengthening and moving through the forecast area, supporting a warmup. Saturday, July 4th, shows temperatures in the 80s alongside breezy winds and low relative humidity. On Sunday, temperatures are projected to get into the high 80s and low 90s, which will bring a return of isolated Moderate HeatRisk to the area. /AS && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: With the heavier rain moving in, ceilings are starting to drop, particularly at COE, where conditions briefly dropped to IFR. Conditions at COE and PUW have the highest chances of seeing IFR conditions, with ceilings dropping below 1000 feet through late this morning. Chances drop once PoPs lower around 18Z. GEG, SFF, have a 10-20% chance of dropping down to MVFR. By 18Z, PoPs largely lower to 30%. With the exception of PUW and GEG, winds have largely decreased with the start of the rain and will stay that way through tomorrow afternoon, where they look to pick up again around 18Z. EAT will see the strongest winds, with gusts 30-35kts already being observed. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence in timing of rain. Moderate confidence in ceilings dropping to MVFR/IFR at COE and PUW. Biggest forecast uncertainty lies with ceilings at GEG, SFF, and LWS. High- res models show a 10-30% chance for MVFR conditions. Most impactful alternate scenario would require amendments if ceilings drop below what is in the TAF. /AS ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 74 51 73 51 73 48 / 40 50 20 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 70 50 72 51 72 48 / 70 60 30 0 0 0 Pullman 66 48 70 44 70 43 / 80 30 30 0 0 0 Lewiston 72 51 78 53 78 52 / 90 30 30 0 0 0 Colville 82 52 72 47 74 44 / 40 80 70 30 20 10 Sandpoint 69 50 68 49 70 47 / 80 80 60 10 0 0 Kellogg 62 48 69 48 71 46 / 100 70 30 0 0 0 Moses Lake 84 54 81 50 80 48 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 82 59 79 56 78 54 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 87 59 80 55 79 51 / 10 40 30 30 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$