364 FXUS66 KOTX 290047 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 547 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy gap winds persist through this evening along the Cascades. - Wetting rains overnight for eastern WA and north ID including over 1.00" of rain in the mountains of ID. - Thunderstorms in northeast WA and north ID Monday afternoon && .SYNOPSIS... A band of rain is expected to impact much of the Inland Northwest later this evening and overnight. Following the rain, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon over north ID and northeast WA. Unsettled weather and cooler than normal temperatures will persist the remainder of the week with isolated shower activity. By the weekend, a ridge will build bringing temperatures back up to normal in time for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday... The satellite view over the Pacific Northwest is an impressive site for late June, particularly when you consider that 5 years ago today was the peak of the historic heatwave that brought record breaking temperatures. Three distinct circulations can be seen on the water vapor imagery; the parent low over northern Nevada, a second more vigorous circulation retrograding over northern Montana, and a final weaker circulation moving due south on the western periphery of the trof. It is the northern Montana circulation that will bring the Inland Northwest a much needed band of wetting rains overnight and a round of thunderstorms Monday afternoon. The cloud shield ahead of this wave has already overspread much of Washington and radar echoes are now showing up over far northern Idaho. Models have come into agreement that a band of rain will move south and west this evening, bringing north Idaho and eastern WA approximately .15-30" of rain in the lower elevations and heavier amounts in the ID mountains (.50-1.25"). The 992 mb surface low pressure currently located in northwest Montana will slowly fill to 998 mb and drift southeast by this time tomorrow. The relaxing pressure gradient across the Cascades will help reduce the gap winds that are currently gusting 30-40 mph. Instability increases Monday afternoon over far northern ID and the northeast WA mountains resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Model guidance depicts over 1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE near the Canada border but quickly decreases to below 250 J/kg over Spokane and Lincoln Counties. The expectation is that storms will develop in the early afternoon and drift south-southwest toward the Spokane/CdA metro area. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) currently paints the northern half of Lincoln, Spokane, and Kootenai Counties in general thunder Monday. While severe weather is not anticipated, brief heavy rain, small hail (<.25"), and gusty winds are all possible in this area through 2000 Monday. The limited instability will lead to storms weakening as they approach I90, although gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain is still a distinct possibility in the metro area. Tuesday through Friday... Following the active first 24 hours of the forecast period, conditions settle down over the Inland Northwest. The anomalous trof over the western US is reinvigorated by a new parent low dropping south out of the Yukon and into northern British Columbia. This trof will remain over the Inland Northwest through the week bringing unsettled conditions...meaning partly to mostly cloudy skies with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. The lower heights will also keep temperatures 5-10 degrees F below normal for this time of year. 4th of July Weekend...Models have consistently started to nudge the trof to the east on Friday resulting in a building ridge over the PacNW just in time for the holiday weekend. Temperatures will begin climbing back closer to normal by Saturday (upper 70s to lower 80s) and above normal by Sunday (widespread 80s). The upper level ridge will help clear out the clouds and bring dry conditions for what looks like a beautiful holiday weekend. /AB && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected at all TAFs through 09Z. Continued rain will lower ceilings through the night, bringing a chance of MVFR especially to PUW. PUW has the greatest chances of dropping to LIFR with ceilings below 500 ft AGL around 11-12Z. Elsewhere, at GEG, SFF, COE, and LWS, high-res models are showing a 10-30% chance for MVFR conditions. By 20Z, as the rain comes to an end for just about every terminal but COE, ceilings will begin improving. Winds will continue to be west to southwest and gusty, and will continue to be elevated with most winds 10kts and above through the entirety of the forecast period. EAT will see the strongest winds, with gusts 30-35kts already being observed. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence in timing of rain. Moderate confidence in ceilings dropping to MVFR at PUW around 10Z. Biggest forecast uncertainty lies with ceilings at GEG, SFF, COE, and LWS. High-res models show a 10-30% chance for MVFR conditions. Most impactful alternate scenario would require amendments if ceilings drop below what is in the TAF. /AS ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 52 72 51 70 48 73 / 90 30 40 30 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 51 68 50 69 50 72 / 100 60 60 50 0 0 Pullman 46 64 48 68 44 70 / 90 80 20 10 0 0 Lewiston 52 71 51 77 52 78 / 90 90 10 10 10 0 Colville 54 80 52 70 44 74 / 80 40 80 60 30 30 Sandpoint 52 67 50 66 47 70 / 100 70 80 60 10 10 Kellogg 47 61 48 67 48 70 / 100 100 40 50 10 10 Moses Lake 57 81 54 79 48 79 / 30 20 10 10 0 0 Wenatchee 59 80 58 78 55 78 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 Omak 57 85 57 77 52 78 / 30 10 40 40 30 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$