332 FXUS61 KOKX 292041 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 441 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Excessive Heat Watch has been extended into Saturday July 4th. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near record, dangerous heat likely Wed into Sat with little overnight relief. This level of heat can be deadly for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Impacts to transportation infrastructure and electrical and water systems is also possible. 2) Slight chance for aft/eve thunderstorms on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible each day Wednesday through Saturday, particularly in the afternoon and evening. 3) There is a high risk of rip currents on Wednesday (see marine section for discussion) && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Strong agreement in anomalously strong heat ridging (+2-3 std 500mb heights) centered over the Tennessee/Ohio Valley for mid to late week, with general agreement on ridging gradually getting suppressed thru the weekend as northern stream closed low develops and slides through SE Canada Confidence remains high in a prolonged period of near record dangerous heat mid to late week. Medium range ensembles in good general agreement indicating 850mb temps building to (+3-4 std) Thu/Fri, with 850 temps as high as 24-25C. Based on SPC sounding analysis the last time 850mb temps were RAOB observed above 24C were in 1956! Still a good amount of model spread on how high 850 hpa temps get on Wed (waa intensity) and Sat (shortwave/convection timing), with variation between 21c and 25c. Widespread highs in the mid to upper 90s likely away from south coasts, with highest end potential for low 100s for NYC metro and N&W both days. Greater model confidence in air temps away from immediate south and east coasts being able to reach 100 to 105F Thu and Fri, with moderate to high LREF probabilities of heat indices of 105F to 110F. This is a rare signal. As noted in previous shifts, a lower predictability factor in the heat index forecast will be the Tds. Large spread in dewpoints are still seen in the latest NBM, with mean values in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Based on the extreme T forecast, this should still results in HI values between 105 and 110 for large portions of the area Wed thru Sat. Just as importantly as the high temps will be lack of overnight relief as lows Wed night thru Fri Night are not likely to drop below the lower 80s for the NYC/NJ urban centers, and upper 70s for much of the rest of the area. This level of heat can be deadly for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Impacts to transportation (rail, bridge, road/tarmac) infrastructure and electrical (high demand electrical) and water systems (open hydrants reducing water pressure) have been noted with previous heat events of this severity and duration. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Given our placement on the northern periphery of the upper level ridge, we are set up for potential convection/MCSs rounding the periphery of the ridge. While this is common in this pattern, there is inherent uncertainty in timing, placement and strength of this activity. CAMs have backed off potential for a late aft/eve MCS across the region on Tuesday, which is inline with 600-800mb capping and weak instability at the coast, and shortwave forcing well to the north. Potential for an overnight/early Wed AM shower or thunderstorm triggering off outflow. As mentioned there is limited predictability on tstm specifics Wed thru Sat, which will be dependent on timing of convectively modified shortwaves rotating around the periphery of the ridge. Potential for iso-sct severe storms exists each day in the highly unstable airmass, increased deep layer shear in vicinity of shortwaves, and possible EMLs. This severe threat is signaled in CSU-MLP and AI NWP convective guidances as well. The greatest hourly timing threat will be during the aft/eve hours, but the exists at any time of day in this environment. Overall daily tstm chances may be reduced on Thursday as upper ridge makes it farthest NE build into the region. On the other end, highest tstm chances appear to be on Sat aft/night with general agreement on northern stream troughing slightly suppressing the ridging down thru the area and approach of a weak cold front. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure in control with VFR through the TAF period. Chance of MVFR or lower at the eastern terminals late tonight for a brief period after 06Z. Low chance of an isolated SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon especially north and west of the NYC terminals. Confidence in coverage too low to include in the TAF attm. Winds are expected to remain at or under 10 kts today. S-SW winds do pick up Tuesday to near 10-15 kt, gusting to 20kts by the early afternoon. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but chances for IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus east of NYC terminals, more likely at KGON for early morning. Also, brief localized MVFR or lower possible in late day into nighttime showers or thunderstorms. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly along the coast, afternoon into night. .Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but brief localized MVFR or lower possible in late day into nighttime showers or thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly along the coast, afternoon into evening. .Thursday: VFR. .Friday: Mainly VFR, but chances for MVFR or lower with chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially towards the evening. Some SW- NW wind gusts 15-20 kt are possible. .Saturday: VFR with MVFR or lower possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms. W/SW winds 5-10kts. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Mainly sub-Small Craft Advisory criteria expected through the week, outside of aft/eve coastal jet formation. A brief period of S/SW SCA winds expected Tuesday aft/eve and then again Wednesday aft/eve for water west of Fire Island Inlet, NY harbor, W LIS, and south shore bays of W LI. This will likely have ocean seas building to 3 to 5 ft Tue eve into Wed eve. As ridging build farther over the waters Thu and Fri, sub SCA conditions likely in the waker pressure gradient. Rip Currents: There is a low risk of rip currents for the rest of today at local ocean beaches with light winds and a 1-2 ft swell. Strengthening S/SW flow on Tuesday increases the risk to moderate at all beaches, and could become high at NYC and Nassau beaches by late afternoon/evening with 15-20G30kt winds. There is a high risk of rip currents on Wednesday with 20 kt SW flow and 5 ft S swells at 5-6 sec periods. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 1: KEWR: 100/1963 KBDR: 95/1963 KNYC: 100/1901 KLGA: 97/2018 KJFK: 102/1963 KISP: 96/1964 July 2: KEWR: 102/1966 KBDR: 100/1966 KNYC: 100/1966 KLGA: 101/1966 KJFK: 101/1966 KISP: 99/1966 July 3: KEWR: 105/1966 KBDR: 99/1966 KNYC: 103/1966 KLGA: 107/1966 KJFK: 104/1966 KISP: 104/1966 July 4: KEWR: 105/1949 KBDR: 98/1949 KNYC: 102/1949 KLGA: 100/1949 KJFK: 101/2010 KISP: 97/2010 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 1: KEWR: 77/2018 KBDR: 73/2013 KNYC: 79/2018 KLGA: 79/2018 KJFK: 75/1968 KISP: 73/2025 July 2: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 82/1901 KLGA: 78/2002 KJFK: 74/2018 KISP: 74/2014 July 3: KEWR: 82/2002 KBDR: 75/2002 KNYC: 82/2002 KLGA: 81/1966 KJFK: 78/2002 KISP: 76/2018 July 4: KEWR: 81/2002 KBDR: 80/2002 KNYC: 81/2002 KLGA: 82/1999 KJFK: 80/2002 KISP: 76/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>007-009>011. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075- 176-178. NJ...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for ANZ335-338-345-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV AVIATION...DBR MARINE...NV