230 FXUS61 KOKX 290625 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 225 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dangerous heat in the forecast mid-late week. Extreme Heat Watches remain in effect. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... H5 ridging is already in the process of building across the Gulf region as of Sunday afternoon, with guidance projecting the ridge to build north-northeast thanks to deepening Pacific cutoff through the coming week. As previous forecaster noted, heights reach 2-2.5 standard deviations above normal by Wednesday, just as it crests near the Great Lakes. With this ridge in place, and a modified subtropical airmass, will be looking at the potential for a prolonged period of dangerous heat mid to late week. There is a bit of uncertainty with the dominant factors being the placement/amplification of the ridge axis and as such the moisture profile. GFS and its ensembles remain the slightly more amplified/eastern outlier (22-24C at H8) while other extended deterministic/ensemble guidance is not as warm along the immediate coast. Dewpoint spreads still remain on the order of 3-6F mainly with their typical medium range uncertainty. However, even on the lower 25th-10th percentile, dewpoints are still in the upper 60s to near 70F over a nearly 72 hour period. Even with this uncertainty recent run to run consistency support a potentially dangerous heat situation with only a few degrees difference between potential Advisory and Warning level heat indices Wednesday through at least Friday. The rising surface dewpoints will also limit overnight relief. Given these factors, have hoisted an Extreme Heat Watch for all areas Wednesday through Friday. This could be a dangerous situation especially for sensitive groups. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure moves over and eventually to the south of the region during the TAF period. Dry conditions through the TAF period. Aside from some areas of fog/stratus, VFR conditions are expected. These areas of fog/stratus will be mainly north and east of NYC terminals for late at night into the early morning hours. Within the fog/stratus, mainly IFR to LIFR conditions can be expected with brief VLIFR possible as well. Winds are expected to remain at or under 10 kts through the TAF period. Variable wind direction into this morning will eventually become more southerly thereafter through the remainder of the TAF period. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... IFR to LIFR possible this morning mainly in window of 08-12Z with fog/stratus. Some fluctuation between categories is quite possible into early this morning. Chance that KJFK fog and stratus this morning does not develop. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Late Tonight: Mainly VFR, but chances for IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus east of NYC terminals, more likely at KGON. .Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but chances for IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus east of NYC terminals, more likely at KGON for early morning. Also, brief localized MVFR or lower possible in late day into nighttime showers or thunderstorms. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly along the coast, afternoon into night. .Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but brief localized MVFR or lower possible in late day into nighttime showers or thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly along the coast, afternoon into evening. .Thursday: VFR. .Friday: Mainly VFR, but chances for MVFR or lower with chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially towards the evening. Some SW- NW wind gusts 15-20 kt are possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Patchy fog is forecast across all waters into this morning. There is marine dense fog expected for the waters surrounding Eastern Long Island into this morning with a marine dense fog advisory in effect until 9AM. Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on the non ocean waters through Thu. Wind gusts reach around 20 kt on the ocean waters late day Tue and Wed, but should remain below SCA criteria. Seas approach 5 ft on the ocean in a S flow late Wed into Wed night. Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains low Monday with 1-2 ft swell sets with period varying between 5-10 s and onshore winds at or below 10 kt. The risk increases to moderate on Tuesday, with south winds 10-15kts in an increasing swell. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 1: KEWR: 100/1963 KBDR: 95/1963 KNYC: 100/1901 KLGA: 97/2018 KJFK: 102/1963 KISP: 96/1964 July 2: KEWR: 102/1966 KBDR: 100/1966 KNYC: 100/1966 KLGA: 101/1966 KJFK: 101/1966 KISP: 99/1966 July 3: KEWR: 105/1966 KBDR: 99/1966 KNYC: 103/1966 KLGA: 107/1966 KJFK: 104/1966 KISP: 104/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 1: KEWR: 77/2018 KBDR: 73/2013 KNYC: 79/2018 KLGA: 79/2018 KJFK: 75/1968 KISP: 73/2025 July 2: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 82/1901 KLGA: 78/2002 KJFK: 74/2018 KISP: 74/2014 July 3: KEWR: 82/2002 KBDR: 75/2002 KNYC: 82/2002 KLGA: 81/1966 KJFK: 78/2002 KISP: 76/2018 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332- 340-350. && $$ DISCUSSION...MD AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM/MD