846 FXUS61 KOKX 281755 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1255 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of fog and black ice possible tonight. 2) Snow showers expected on Sunday. 3) Multiple waves of low pressure will impact the area Tuesday through Friday of next week. Little to no impacts. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... As for tonight/early Sunday morning, fog development would be more likely to occur this evening before a northerly flow strengthens overnight. Because of this timing, freezing fog would appear to only be possible well inland tonight due to anticipated temperatures. .KEY MESSAGE 2... No advisories are currently anticipated for snow or wind chills. A cold front moves through the area tonight, but with little moisture to accompany it. Deeper moisture follows on Sunday along with PVA to bring snow/snow showers across the area. NBM PoP has trended upward from the previous runs and QPF from several models implies the likelihood of precipitation occurring, so have gone above NBM PoP for Sunday. Precip should be exiting the eastern zones by the end of the day. Thermal profiles support snow, although boundary layer profiles are close to allowing some rain to potentially mix in for southern zones. Will keep the forecast as all snow. Above-freezing temps through the event and daytime timing will mitigate snow accumulations. Anticipating 1-2 inches of snow across CT and much of Lower Hudson Valley, with under an inch elsewhere. Minor impacts for the most part, but brief moderate/heavier snowfall may overcome any melting on the roadways for a short time. Special Weather Statements should be able to handle impact messaging as needed. Colder air filters in from the north during Sunday night with minimum wind chills in the single digits. Highs for Monday only in the 20s for most spots, and the forecast high at ISP would be a record low max for the date. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Upper air pattern is forecast to change this period as a trough becomes established across the western half of the country by the end of the period, with broad upper level ridging across the east. This will support a period of mild weather with a storm track generally to the north and west of the forecast area. This supports mainly rain through the week. But with cold air in place Tuesday morning, precipitation ahead of a warm front may initially start off as snow before going over to rain. Transition likely occurs before a steadier precipitation develops. Expect little or no snowfall accumulation at the coast with perhaps and inch or two across the interior. Low pressure passes to the northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday with conditions briefly drying out Wednesday. Another frontal wave approaches from the Mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Thursday bringing chances of rain into the area. Temperatures trending warmer than normal starting on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure off the northeast coast weakens as a cold front approaches through this evening, and moves through tonight. High pressure builds in from the west late Sunday into Sunday night. Mainly VFR until Sunday morning with light snow. There is a chance of MVFR ceilings in stratus during the evening before a cold front passes through the terminals. There also may be visibility restrictions in fog, however, confidence is low for fog and not included in the forecast. Light snow Sunday morning into the early afternoon west, and into late afternoon far east, with generally MVFR conditions and a possibility of IFR visibilities in light snow, and maintained the TEMPO group for the lower conditions. Once the snow ends VFR develops. Winds S/SW 10 kt or less ahead of a cold front, becoming light and variable as the front nears, then NW/N 10 kt or less after the cold front. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low confidence of fog development this evening, with a period of stratus more likely. There is a chance that stratus does not develop. Moderate confidence with the timing of the snow for Sunday, and a brief period of IFR visibilities. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday afternoon: MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys in light snow, ending west to east 18Z to 21Z. Becoming VFR. N/NW winds G15-20 kt. Monday: VFR. Tuesday: MVFR or lower with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming plain rain during the afternoon and into the evening south to north. S wind G15-20 kt possible. Wednesday - Thursday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain. Thursday S wind G15-20 kt possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-advisory conditions expected for the most part today through Tuesday. The exception being Sunday night on the ocean when gusts around 25 kt will be possible as the pressure gradient tightens with northerly gusts. Freezing spray expected on the ocean waters Sunday night into Monday morning as well. There will then be a chance of marginal SCA conditions on the ocean waters next week as multiple waves of low pressure pass to the NW with warm frontal passages. The first chance will be Tuesday night into Wednesday in the warm sector as SW winds strengthen. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC/Goodman AVIATION...MET MARINE...JC