414 FXUS61 KOKX 280543 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1243 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Chances for snow showers have been increased to likely for Sunday, with a coating to an inch possible. Also, updates to aviation for introduction of sub VFR conditions during TAF period. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Patchy fog and black ice possible tonight and Saturday night. 2) Snow showers expected on Sunday. 3) Multiple waves of low pressure will impact the area Tuesday through Friday of next week. Little to no impacts. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Weak return flow, as well as residual moisture from the melting snowpack, will likely produce some fog and black ice both tngt and Sat ngt. Limiting factors for fog are a lack of llvl moisture tngt, as often the fog only happens on the 2nd ngt of onshore flow, and stratus development Sat ngt. For these reasons the fcst keeps coverage at patchy. .KEY MESSAGE 2... An arctic frontal passage on Sun should produce snow shwrs across the area as the polar jet drops into the region. Pops have been manually increased to likely over the much lower NBM. Pockets of mdt-hvy snow possible with steepening lapse rates. However, the snow squall parameter is minuscule or zero, there is no SBCAPE modeled by the NAM, and an upr lvl trof as opposed to a closed low passing thru is modeled. Because of this, it appears not to be a snow squall scenario attm, although there could still be pockets of heavier snow and accums of a coating to an inch. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Upper air pattern is forecast to change this period as a trough becomes established across the western half of the country by the end of the period, with broad upper level ridging across the east. This will support a period of mild weather with a storm track generally to the north and west of the forecast area. This supports mainly rain through the week with a transition from snow to rain on Tuesday. After a shot of arctic air to start the week, high pressure on Monday gives way to low pressure over the Ohio Valley and its associated warm front. With cold air in place, precipitation may initially start off as snow Tuesday morning before going over to rain. Transition likely occurs before a steadier precipitation develops. Expect little or no snowfall accumulation at the coast with perhaps and inch or two across the interior. Low pressure passes to the northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday with conditions briefly drying out Wednesday. Another frontal wave approaches from the Mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Thursday bringing rain into the area. Monday will feature temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal with highs in the 20s and lows Monday night into the lower teens to lower 20s. After that, highs will be in the 40s with lows generally above freezing in the 30s to around 40. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will remain in control through Saturday while gradually moving offshore. A cold front approaches Saturday evening. Periods of sub VFR for most terminals overnight and into the early morning. VFR expected for much of the day Saturday, before a period of sub VFR returning towards or just before 0z Sunday. There remains uncertainty around the degree of vsby restrictions in fog, and low ceilings with stratus for the overnight into early Saturday morning. Uncertainty remains with the degree of low ceilings and low vsby. A few terminals cloud get down to VLIFR, otherwise mainly LIFR and IFR expected. There is a relatively higher confidence for sub VFR conditions for the city and NJ terminals, with somewhat less confidence for KSWF and KISP, KBDR, and KGON. Light and variable winds late overnight into early Saturday morning. A light S to SSW flow develops Saturday morning, with winds 5 to 10 kt at times Saturday afternoon and mainly out of the SW, with possible gusts for KSWF. Winds generally at or below 5 kt Saturday evening. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Unscheduled amendments are possible overnight and through the day Saturday into Saturday evening. Sub VFR conditions, with IFR and MVFR conditions may extend into the day Saturday, but confidence of this remains low. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Late Saturday night: Pockets of Sub VFR at times early with light winds, otherwise mainly VFR with winds becoming N. Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with light snow showers or flurries. N/NW winds G15-20 kt. Monday: VFR. Tuesday: MVFR or lower with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming plain rain during the afternoon and into the evening south to north. Wednesday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain, mainly in the morning. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to be blw SCA lvls thru Sat. Increasing winds and building seas late Sun behind a cold front may bring the ocean to SCA criteria. There will be a chance of marginal SCA conditions on the ocean waters next week as multiple waves of low pressure pass to the NW with warm frontal passages. The first chance will be Tuesday night into Wednesday in the warm sector as SW winds strengthen, then again on Thursday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMC/DW AVIATION...BC/JE MARINE...JMC/DW