831 FXUS61 KOKX 310531 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1231 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The area remains between strong low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure west of the Appalachians. A cold front will move through Wednesday night, then high pressure will build in on New Year's Day. Another cold front will move through Friday night, followed by high pressure for the weekend. Low pressure may impact the area early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Wind gusts will continue to diminish, but an occasional higher gust 30-35 mph may be possible this evening. Aside from a remaining stray flurry this evening, mostly dry conditions are expected. Low temperatures will be in the lower/mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: * A cold front and frontal wave will result in widespread light snow Wednesday night into early Thursday. Another shortwave rounds the base of the trough over the area on Wednesday which will force a cold front through late in the day and into Wednesday night. This will bring the chance for snow showers from late evening into the overnight. The shortwave provides for the deepening of a low pressure wave developing along the passing cold front overnight Wednesday into the morning on New Year's Day. This will provide for additional lift later on at night likely resulting in a more widespread light snow. As the low deepens east of the area as it moves away, SE CT and eastern Long Island have a better chance at seeing perhaps brief moderate snowfall. Overall, less than an inch of accumulation expected for the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, NYC metro and SW CT, with 1-2 inches possible for SE CT and eastern Long Island. High pressure builds in on Thursday behind the departing low. This will result in dry conditions, though it may be a bit breezy with gusts upwards of 30 mph. Temperatures will remain cold. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower/mid 30s, with lows at night from the upper teens to mid 20s. More cold air advection behind the departing cold front and low on New Year's Day will yield highs only around 30 along the coast, and the mid/upper 20s elsewhere. Diminishing winds Thursday night will yield lows in the teens in most places, with some single digits possible inland. Wind chills Thursday night will be in the single digits, and perhaps near 0 for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Points * An extended period of cold conditions is expected with temperatures remaining 5-10 degrees below normal. During this time, much of the interior will likely remain below freezing. * While decent spread still remains with the latest guidance, the next chance of precipitation looks to be with a potential clipper system early to mid next week. This continues to look like mainly an all snow event, with some rain mixing in at the coast. A cold front moves through Friday night, with high pressure building in behind it, and brings in a cold and dry air mass. Not looking at record cold, but several days in a row of 5-10 degrees below normal for both highs and lows. At this time, the cold front is expected to move through dry, with dry conditions lasting through the weekend. Although guidance is not in total agreement on early to mid next week, it continues to hint at a potential clipper system bringing precipitation to the area. The system looks to move quick and does not have significant moisture with it. The NBM QPF trend the last 48 hours has generally remained between 1/10 to 1/4 inch. If this does end up being an all or mostly snow event, a couple of inches of snow would be possible. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The terminals remain between strong low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure west of the Appalachians. A cold front move through late tonight Gusty W flow slowly diminishing through early Wednesday morning. Gusts may briefly end for a few hours before picking back up again 13-15z as winds become WSW. Gusts 20-25 kt are expected through 20-22z. SW winds weaken somewhat, but likely remain around 10 kt into the evening. Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance for light snow and MVFR/IFR late this evening, which may become more widespread overnight, especially north and east of the NYC metro terminals. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may briefly drop off after 09z at JFK and LGA. End time of gusts this afternoon may be off by 1-2 hours. Amendments likely for light snow potential and flight categories Wednesday night. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday night: MVFR-IFR in light snow, especially north and east of NYC metro terminals. W winds G20 kt possible late. Thursday: Chance of light snow and MVFR/IFR at KGON, otherwise VFR. NW winds G20kt. Friday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt. Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A gale warning remains in effect for the ocean, the ern Sound, and the bays of Long Island until 1 AM. Cond then improve to sub-SCA on all waters except the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet by daybreak Wed, where 5-ft seas should linger into daytime Wed. There may be a brief lull in SCA conditions throughout early Wed night, then but wind gusts increase on the ocean to over 25 kt late Wed night through Thu. The non-ocean waters will likely see 25-kt gusts as well at some point daytime Thu. These conditions become more marginal Thursday night. Marginal SCA cond are also possible with a cold frontal passage Fri night. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic concerns through next weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for ANZ331-332- 340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ335-338. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT/MW NEAR TERM...JT/MW SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...JP/DS MARINE...JT/MW HYDROLOGY...JT/MW