543 FXUS61 KOKX 302033 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 333 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The area remains behind a cold front tonight with low pressure remaining to the north bringing a long-lasting cold airmass. A cold front moves through Wednesday night with low pressure developing east of the area Thursday. High pressure builds in on Thursday. A cold front moves through Friday night followed by high pressure for the weekend. An area of low pressure may impact the area early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Key Message: * A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6PM for wind gusts up to 50 mph. Gusty winds persist with occasional gusts upwards of 50 mph possible before 6PM. Gusts will diminish into the overnight period but an occasional gusts remain possible. Aside from a remaining stray flurry or brief light snow shower this evening, mostly dry conditions are expected. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to middle 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: * A cold front and frontal wave will result in widespread light snow Wednesday night into early Thursday. Another shortwave rounds the base of the trough over the area on Wednesday which will force a cold front through late in the day and into Wednesday night. This will bring the chance for snow showers on Wednesday evening. The shortwave provides for the deepening of a low pressure wave developing along the passing cold front overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. This will provide for additional lift later on at night likely resulting in a more widespread light snow. The low pressure deepens east of the area as it pushes away. As a result, the eastern portions of the area have a better chance at seeing perhaps briefly moderate snowfall before the low pulls away by Thursday morning. Overall, less than an inch is expected for the Lower Hudson Valley, NJ, NYC metro and western portions of CT. 1-2 inches are possible for eastern CT and for eastern Long Island. High pressure builds in on Thursday behind the departing low. This will result in dry conditions, though it may be a bit breezy with gusts upwards of 30 mph. Temperatures remain cold. Highs Wednesday will be in the low to middle 30s with lows at night in the upper teens to middle 20s. More cold air advection behind the departing cold front and low pressure Thursday morning will push even colder air into the area. Highs on Thursday will be in the middle to upper 20s for most with coastal areas around 30. Frigid temperatures are expected Thursday night with diminishing winds resulting in lows in the teens everywhere. Some single digits are possible for inland areas. Wind chills Thursday night will be in the single digits and perhaps near 0 for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Points * An extended period of cold conditions is expected with temperatures remaining 5 to 10 degrees below normal through early next week. During this time, much of the interior will likely remain below freezing. * While decent spread still remains with the latest guidance, the next chance of precipitation looks to be with a potential clipper system early to mid next week. This continues to look like mainly an all snow event, with some rain mixing in at the coast. A cold front moves through Friday night, with high pressure building in behind it, and brings in a cold and dry airmass. Not looking at record cold, but several days in a row of 5-10 degrees below normal for both highs and lows. At this time, the cold front is expected to move through dry, with dry conditions lasting through the weekend. Although guidance is not in total agreement on early to mid next week, it continues to hint at a potential clipper system bringing precipitation to the area. The system looks to move quick and does not have significant moisture with it. The NBM QPF trend the last 48 hours has generally remained between 0.10 inches and 0.25 inches in total. If this does end up being an all or mostly snow event, a couple of inches of snow would be possible. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR with a gusty W flow. Expect gusts mainly in the 28-35kt range. Winds will diminish this evening eventually ending for a brief period early Wednesday morning. Winds become more southwesterly Wednesday morning and winds increase a bit and become gusty once again, but not as strong as today. Expect gusts to be closer to the 20-25kt range. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Can not rule out a few isolated gusts higher than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday afternoon: VFR. WSW winds G20kt. Wednesday night: Chance of light snow after midnight with brief MVFR or lower conditions. WSW winds G15-20kt. Thursday: Becoming VFR early. NW winds G20kt. Friday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt. Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gales continue on all waters with gusts upwards of 40-45 kt. Gales fall off the non-ocean waters this evening with SCA conditions continuing through the night. The ocean waters may hang onto gale force wind gusts for the first half of tonight before dropping to SCA. There may be a brief lull in SCA conditions on the ocean early Wednesday night but winds increase to SCA conditions once again late Wednesday night through Thursday. The non-ocean waters will likely see SCA gusts as well on Thursday. SCA conditions become more marginal Thursday night. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible with a cold frontal passage Friday night. Thereafter, seas and winds look to stay below SCA criteria through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic concerns through next weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT/MW NEAR TERM...MW SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...BC MARINE...JT/MW HYDROLOGY...JT/MW