887 FXUS64 KOHX 282355 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 655 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 - Dangerous heat and humidity Monday through late next week (and possibly into the weekend). An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect Monday through Thursday for Middle TN, west of the Plateau. - Highs this week in the mid to upper 90s with afternoon heat index values as hot as 110. Overnight lows will also remain warm only falling into the mid to upper 70s. - Hot conditions remain in place into next weekend with low afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 As an upper ridge builds over the midwest and Ohio River valley, temperatures will warm into the mid-upper 90s for most of the mid- state. With surface dewpoints in the 70s, the heat and humidty will yield heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees for areas within the Extreme Heat Warning. On portions of the plateau where it's cooler, heat indices will still approach the high 90s. Expect little relief at night as lows in the 70s, especially mid to high 70s for the western two thirds of Middle Tennessee, will persist. Winds will be light enough for some patchy fog development later tonight and again tomorrow night, but coverage is going to be localized and a Dense Fog Advisory is not anticipated at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Our focus is now going to turn to dangerous heat over the next week. A short wave trough is exiting the eastern part of the state and as it does we will see dry conditions set in. There will be just a low chance for a few pop up showers and thunderstorms through 6 PM. Highs this afternoon will reach the lower 90s with afternoon heat index values as hot as 106. An upper level ridge has already started to amplify over the central part of the country and will continue to build over the next week. This will bring dangerous heat to the area starting Monday and will last at least through Friday. Monday highs will warm into the mid to upper 90s. Dew points will be humid in the low to mid 70s pushing afternoon heat index values as hot as 110. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 The upper level ridge will continue to amplify and be centered over Middle TN through at least the middle part of the week. This will bring a prolonged period of very hot temperatures. Highs through at least Friday will be in the mid to upper 90s and afternoon heat index values will be as hot as 110. There will be limited relief from the heat overnight as lows will only fall into the mid to upper 70s. This heat and duration will bring extreme heat risk to much of Middle TN by Tuesday and will remain extreme at least through Friday. Extreme Heat Risk means that there is rare and or long duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief affecting anyone without cooling/hydration as well as health systems, industries, and infrastructure. The upper level ridge will drift east late week and start to break down some next weekend. That will bring some cooling for the 4th of July weekend but it will be limited. Highs will still remain in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values in the triple digits. With the upper level ridge just to our east we will see low chances for pop up afternoon/evening thunderstorms Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Gusty southerly winds will ease up around sundown, with calm to very light winds overnight. Some fog development is expected for SRB and CSV during the overnight hours, then burning off after sunrise. Light south-southwesterly winds tomorrow at all TAF sites with some mid-level diurnal cu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 76 96 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 75 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 70 88 71 91 / 20 10 0 10 Columbia 74 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 72 90 73 92 / 10 10 0 10 Jamestown 70 89 71 92 / 20 10 0 10 Lawrenceburg 73 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 74 96 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 74 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ005>008-023>028- 056>062-075-093>095. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ005>010-023>032-056>064-075-093>095. && $$ UPDATE.......05 SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....05