460 FXUS64 KOHX 301722 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Very cold today and tonight. - Dry and seasonably cool NYE and New Year's Day. - Next rain chances Friday and Friday night. No hazardous weather is expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Most of the low clouds have dispersed this morning, leaving us under a fully sunny sky. Though the sun is out, surface northwest winds are keeping things cool with temperatures still in the 20s in many spots. It looks like temps will only make it into the low 30s today, dropping back into the low to mid 20s again overnight. Drip those faucets! A very weak upper level disturbance will move through tomorrow resulting in additional cloud cover during the afternoon. Higher 500mb heights will also move over the area, helping warm temperatures back into the 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 For New Year's Eve night, the weather will be quiet, but cold. Temperatures around 12AM will be at or just below freezing for most, so be sure to grab a jacket if you'll be heading out to celebrate. The first day of 2026 will feature temperatures around 50 degrees with increasing clouds through the day as flow aloft transitions westerly ahead of our next disturbance. A low developing over the southwest will move across our south on Friday, tracking a surface low over central/north Alabama. The bulk of heavier precip looks to remain south of Middle TN, but we are still slated to receive a little more than a quarter of an inch if you're south of I-40; QPF values are much lower north of there. With us being on the cooler side of this low, no instability is noted on soundings, so we do not anticipate any hazardous weather. A weak cold front will follow this system, though we'll only drop a few degrees Saturday with highs in the low 50s. Temperatures will warm right back up heading into next week as ridging aloft builds over the central US. There is a good deal of disagreement amongst the long term models with regards to the future upper air pattern, but there are hints at another low pressure system bringing more rain chances back by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 MVFR cigs are impacting all terminals at the start of this TAF cycle. The clouds are expected to erode this morning. Used RAP model timing with clearing at CKV 13Z, BNA/MQY 15Z, CSV/SRB 16Z. But, these low cloud layers under an inversion can be stubborn. Otherwise, NW winds near 10KT through the day will become light from the W tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 36 27 49 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 35 27 47 30 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 31 21 42 27 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 37 25 49 30 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 33 22 43 27 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 30 22 41 27 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 36 24 49 28 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 36 24 48 27 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 35 26 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....13