883 FXUS64 KOHX 301115 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 515 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 505 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Very cold today and tonight. - Dry and seasonably cool NYE and New Year's Day. - Next rain chances Friday and Friday night. No hazardous weather is expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 931 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Surface high pressure centered over the Great Plains is already ridging into Middle Tennessee, hence the stable atmosphere that has settled over the region. An upper trough has just exited the mid state, so we are left with a northwest flow aloft and still a broad swath of low-level moisture left to rotate through. Already, we are seeing low ceilings at most Middle Tennessee locations, and these will stick around for most of the night. This is helping to reduce the effects of radiation cooling, so, although we're expecting a cold night, temperatures won't drop as low as they otherwise would. We'll maintain our northwest surface flow on Tuesday, so highs tomorrow will be similar to today's. However, warmer weather will soon be on the way. Although we won't experience meaningful return flow until the end of the week, the cold advection pattern we're currently "enjoying" will break down Tuesday night and Wednesday, and this will at least allow for warmer temperatures. So readings on Wednesday and Thursday will more or less return to seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 931 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 The next active weather system will bring rain chances to Middle Tennessee Friday, Friday night and perhaps into Saturday as a low pressure system takes an easterly track just to our south. So we will stay on the cool side of this system, and that means we likely won't experience much in the way of convective activity, and temperatures from Friday onward look to level off just above seasonal norms. Storm total QPF resulting from this system ranges from less than 1/4" across northwest portions of Middle Tennessee to more than 1/2" over southeast areas of the mid state. So we should receive a little more rainfall with the upcoming system than from last night's cold front. There is the possibility of a more impactful low pressure system affecting the region mid to late next week as we reach the end of the 10-day NBM forecast. The current 6-10 day outlook favors above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall across Middle Tennessee, while the 8-14 outlook favors above normal temperatures and near normal rainfall. At this time, it is safe to say that hazardous weather is not expected in Middle Tennessee for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 MVFR cigs are impacting all terminals at the start of this TAF cycle. The clouds are expected to erode this morning. Used RAP model timing with clearing at CKV 13Z, BNA/MQY 15Z, CSV/SRB 16Z. But, these low cloud layers under an inversion can be stubborn. Otherwise, NW winds near 10KT through the day will become light from the W tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 37 27 49 31 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 36 27 46 30 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 32 21 43 26 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 38 24 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 33 22 43 26 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 31 22 41 26 / 10 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 38 23 49 28 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 37 23 49 27 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 36 26 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....13