072 

FXUS63 KOAX 010538

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

1138 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A wintry system arrives Sunday/Monday, bringing chances for

  snow, ice, and drizzle to areas mainly along and south of 

  I-80.



- Temperatures begin trending upwards Monday afternoon through

  much of the week, keeping additional precipitation as rain.



- A another system arrives Friday into early Saturday, with rain

  expected to continue as the primary precipitation type.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Tonight through Monday Morning:



Water vapor imagery this evening shows weak troughing centered over 

the eastern third of the CONUS, while zonal to northwesterly flow 

pours in from the west over the western two-thirds. High pressure 

continues to keep its hold over the northern half of the Great 

Plains, with northeasterly winds ushering in temperatures in the 20s 

across the area, that are set to further drop into the upper teens 

and lower 20s at their lowest point overnight. Though current 

dewpoints are near the forecast overnight low temperatures, dry air 

advection will counteract any cooling to reduce any fog chances to 

nearly zero.



By sunrise tomorrow, a swath of warm air advection and incoming

positive vorticity advection will kick start over the Central 

and Southern High Plains and will serve as the primary driver of

snow/ice that move through southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa

during the afternoon and evening hours. We find ourselves on 

the northern end of the precipitation, with lower coverage due 

to the limited northern extent of the shortwave and thus have 

lower expectations for any snow/ice accumulations. Overall QPF 

with the latest runs of the models has increased, but a messy 

precipitation type will cut down on what actually piles up at 

the surface, as that WAA advection strengthens to push temps to

freezing and partially melt snow aloft. Expect sub-ten-to-one 

snow ratios where you do see snow, with near freezing to just 

below temperatures (that only cool overnight), making any ice 

and re-freezing of melted rain/snow/ice the biggest thing to be 

ready for. The locations expected to see some ice impacts 

(50-70% chance) have a Winter Weather Advisory out for them, 

while any further expansion depending on whether or not amounts 

trend upwards. 



As the main shield of rain/wintry mix shuffles to the south and east 

of the area late Sunday, marginal lift will continue into the 

overnight and early morning hours of Monday, resulting in areas of 

freezing drizzle. Latest runs of the short-term models have 

disparate coverage for the drizzle, lowering confidence in it 

occurring (10-30% chance). Nonetheless, the limited coverage, 

duration, and light winds should mean accumulations will be 

inefficient and limit impacts to the Monday morning commute.  



Monday and Beyond:



As the morning rounds out into the afternoon, expect the dreary 

conditions to continue through the day with any slickness melting 

thanks to high temperatures that push into the 40s in anticipation 

of a shortwave trough approaching from the west. As this system 

reaches the Central High Plains just to the east of the area, it 

will meander southeast and help keep prolonged precipitation 

forecast for the area through Wednesday. As it lingers, most of

the forecast area should see a good quarter to half in of 

rainfall that would go a long way to help us with recent 

dryness. Temperatures trend upwards through this stretch with 

the prolonged southerly return flow ahead of the system, peaking

Thursday as a break in the clouds and light rain chances leave 

us with sunny skies and a thermal ridge over the area. Heading 

into the weekend, model divergence increases, but we do have 

good odds of seeing more beneficial precipitation headed for us 

as another trough sheds a shortwave through the area before 

retrograding to southern California by Saturday afternoon.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1122 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



VFR conditions and east winds begin the TAF period. Clouds

increase overnight ahead of an approaching weather system.

Ceilings will begin to gradually decrease throughout the

afternoon and evening on Sunday due to this weather system,

though will continue to be VFR to start. Any precipitation from

this weather system is expected to remain close to the 

Kansas/Missouri border. Light snow is expected at LNK during the

afternoon with MVFR ceiling and visibility reductions likely. 

There is low confidence on any meaningful snow reaching OMA with

any snow at OFK unlikely. By Sunday evening, MVFR and IFR 

ceilings begin to build north across the area as snow exits. Most

terminals are expected to be impacted by category reductions by the

end of the TAF period. Winds remain easterly through the

forecast.



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday 

     for NEZ091>093.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Petersen

AVIATION...Chehak