557 

FXUS63 KOAX 282327

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

527 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A storm system arrives Sunday/Monday, bringing chances for

  light snow and drizzle to areas mainly along and south of

  I-80.



- A brief reprieve from colder temperatures (highs: 30s) is

  expected Tuesday and Wednesday.



- Another storm system will move across the middle of the nation

  on Wednesday, bringing chances for precipitation to the

  region. The best chance for precipitation for our area will be

  for areas along and south of I-80.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



We end Meteorological Winter with a mild but slightly cooler day 

than yesterday. High pressure remains over Saskatchewan, Manitoba 

and the Dakotas today, allowing some cooler air to filter into the 

region. Current temperatures remain in the 30s and 40s across most 

areas early this afternoon, with a few low 50s toward the 

Kansas/Nebraska border. Expect afternoon highs to top out in the 40s 

and 50s.



Sunday morning, a weak h7 shortwave trough will be on the lee side 

of the Rockies, over the Central High Plains. This trough will 

progress eastward through the day, arriving in our CWA late Sunday 

afternoon. Models have continued to trend the system further south, 

which has resulted in another lowering of snow amounts for portions 

of the area. The current forecast now has locations south of I-80 

receiving up to a half inch of snow with maybe a localized inch. 

With the warmer temperatures the last few days, the ground will be 

warm, so it will take some time for snow to accumulate, which will 

impact measurable snow depth. 



Thermal profiles are showing a possibility of the development of 

some freezing drizzle late Sunday night/Monday morning for portions 

of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. There is a little more 

uncertainty of this scenario heading up toward the Omaha Metro, 

while we have higher confidence in this occurrence in the extreme 

southeastern corner of Nebraska. A Winter Weather Advisory was 

issued for Nemaha, Pawnee and Richardson counties for Sunday 

afternoon through Monday morning to account for some potential 

freezing drizzle and concerns about Monday morning's commute. A 

light glaze to a few hundredths of ice may be possible in these 

areas should freezing drizzle develop.



Another round of precipitation is expected Monday afternoon. 

Temperatures should rise into the upper 30s to mid-40s, so 

precipitation should fall as rain with this second wave with maybe 

some drizzle possible in the overnight hours.



Tuesday, a mid-level shortwave trough progresses eastward from the 

Four Corners region to around Goodland and Dodge City by the 

evening. Models are still in disagreement over the timing, strength 

and track of this system. The GFS remains consistently more 

aggressive in bringing it over the OAX CWA on Wednesday, while other 

models continue to track it south across Kansas and Missouri. Also 

consistent is the placement of a stationary front over extreme 

southeastern Kansas/central Missouri during this timeframe. Went 

with this second solution for Wednesday and proceeded to pull PoPs 

down, especially for areas north of I-80 as the GFS appears to be an 

outlier at the present time. The best chances for precipitation will 

be south of our area around where the boundary is; however, areas 

south of I-80 will still have potential (10-20% chance) of receiving 

a little rain or a rain/snow mix.



Heading into the latter portion of the forecast period, models show 

the potential for another system to move across the region, bringing 

additional chances for precipitation.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Winds have shifted northwesterly to start out the TAF period,

with the lingering gusts from the afternoon falling off as VFR

conditions hold. Expect winds to stay at 10 kts or less through

the next 24 hours, becoming increasingly westerly tomorrow

morning into the afternoon with increasing mid/high cloud cover

as well. Late tomorrow afternoon, MVFR to IFR conditions will

slide just to the south of the KOMA/KOFK area, affecting KLNK

for 2-3 hours. Along with those conditions will come some light

snow that will struggle to accumulate at all, with any chances 

further diminishing as you go north towards KOMA/KLNK.



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday 

     for NEZ091>093.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...ANW

AVIATION...Petersen