161 

FXUS63 KOAX 302041

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

241 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warmer today with highs in the low 40s east of the Missouri

  River, and mid to upper 40s west. A few spots along our far

  west could hit 50F.  



- Warm temperatures continue Wednesday with breezy winds, 

  followed by a brief cool down in the 30s for Thursday and 

  Friday.



- Dry conditions continue for the extended forecast period.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/



20z RAP objective analysis at H5 shows northwesterly flow over 

much of the central CONUS, while off to the east the longwave 

trof and strong 498dam closed low spins over eastern Quebec, 

and to the west ridging dominates. Within the H5 northwesterly 

flow, a weak wave is observed trekking through Nebraska into 

Iowa. The feature has resulted in a few high based clouds, but 

nothing more notable than that. Winds have been light too across

most of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with the lone 

exception of northeast Nebraska where slightly deeper mixing and

a tighter pressure gradient are observed.



Sunny conditions are forecast for the remainder of the afternoon 

with highs reaching the upper 30s to low 40s east of the Missouri 

River, and mid to upper 40s west. A few spots across our far west 

could hit 50F. Cloud cover will gradually increase overnight 

across far northeast Nebraska into western Iowa. Lows tonight 

will be in the mid 20s for most locations.



By Wednesday, H8 warm air advection overspreads much of Nebraska 

resulting in high temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s over much 

central into southeast Nebraska. Slightly cooler temperatures in the 

low to mid 40s are expected for the rest of the area. A strong 

wave will eject from northern Manitoba southeast toward the 

Great Lakes vicinity throughout the day. The associated sfc 

feature's cold front will extend to the west, crossing the 

forecast area from north to south by Wednesday evening. Winds 

will be breezy too in the vicinity of the front at 25 to 35 mph,

tapering off by the late evening. Low level convergence along 

the sfc boundary may be enough to generate some low clouds, but 

dry conditions are expected. Lows Wednesday night reach the mid 

teens in northeast Nebraska and far western Iowa to low 20s for 

the rest of the area.



.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/



The western CONUS H5 ridge will deamplify somewhat on Thursday as a 

strong shortwave off the coast of southwest California tracks 

northeast. A few waves are seen ejecting from the eastern periphery 

of the ridge near the Rockies. However, model guidance keeps these 

disturbances well away from the area. Sfc ridging moves over 

portions of the Northern Plains too, helping suppress any PoP 

chances for Thursday and Friday. Behind Wednesday's front, highs

Thursday and Friday cool to the 30s.



This "cool down" will be short lived though as strong H8 warm air 

advection moves over a large portion of the Northern and Central 

Plains by the weekend and into early next week. Highs Saturday warm 

to the 40s for most locations, with widespread 50s across eastern 

Nebraska by Sunday. The warmth continues through at least Monday. 

Deterministic and ensemble guidance is also in fairly good agreement 

that dry weather prevails for the duration of the long term period.  



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1136 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



VFR conditions are observed at all terminals late this morning.

A few models hint at a low cloud deck developing between 2,500

to 3,500 feet after 00z, affecting all three terminals. For now,

sky coverage should keep ceilings in VFR range, but can't rule

out a brief drop to MVFR range with the cloud deck. Breezy 

northwest winds will affect KOFK late this afternoon, largely 

subsiding by 03z. Winds at all three terminals become

west southwesterly after 12z. Have added low level wind shear at

all three terminals from 01z to 05z given increased confidence 

for occurrence.



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Castillo

AVIATION...Castillo