230 FXUS63 KOAX 301736 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1136 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a cold start and wind chills in the single digits, warmth is arriving today to push highs into the 40s and 50s through tomorrow. - Dry conditions continue for the extended forecast period. A cold front and gusty winds (25-35 mph) will cool us down into the 30s Thursday and Friday, with a warmer weekend in store. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Today: Water vapor imagery this morning shows a deep trough centered over New England, with north-northwesterly flow across the central CONUS carrying a mid/upper wave through MT/ND/SD, and ridging over the Pacific Coast. This shortwave is set to pass over the area over the course of the day, bringing increasing high clouds but not having much influence on the sensible weather locally. Rising heights and a building low-level thermal ridge over the High Plains will work to spread gradual downslope flow and warming that will take morning wind chills in the single digits and turn them into a pleasant winter day that tops out in the 40s. Some leftover pressure will bring slight gusts (20-25mph) to northeast Nebraska while the rest of the area enjoys lighter winds. Those warm temperatures won't feel quite as warm as they could with the scattered to broken high clouds, but these temperatures are certainly nothing to complain about this time of the year and will melt any residual snow/ice. Wednesday and Beyond: For the rest of the forecast, quiescent conditions and dry weather will keep travel troubles to a minimum as folks finish out the holidays/winter break through the weekend. Wednesday will improve today's temperatures slightly (40s and 50s), in anticipation of a clipper system that misses the forecast area to the northeast. As the clipper passes, it will drag a cold front and gusty winds (25-35 mph) through the area that kicks us back down into the cooler 30s Thursday and Friday before rebounding into the weekend and early next week. Warmth throughout the forecast is driven by a split-flow pattern, featuring a poleward jet keeping the cold north of the area while the sub-tropical jet wards away any meaningful moisture flow into the area. Models have us wavering between northwesterly and quasi-zonal flow as the jet stream wavers, with even individual ensemble members struggling to bring any sort of precipitation until mid-next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1136 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions are observed at all terminals late this morning. A few models hint at a low cloud deck developing between 2,500 to 3,500 feet after 00z, affecting all three terminals. For now, sky coverage should keep ceilings in VFR range, but can't rule out a brief drop to MVFR range with the cloud deck. Breezy northwest winds will affect KOFK late this afternoon, largely subsiding by 03z. Winds at all three terminals become west southwesterly after 12z. Have added low level wind shear at all three terminals from 01z to 05z given increased confidence for occurrence. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Castillo