643 FXUS63 KOAX 300519 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1119 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds subside this evening. - Cold tonight with lows in the teens. Wind chills values in the single digits to low teens are forecast for early Tuesday morning. - Dry conditions continue for the extended forecast period. Warm up expected by Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday with most seeing temperatures in the 40s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ 19z RAP objective analysis shows the strong 510dam closed low over the far eastern Great Lakes. The sfc feature which brought the strong northwest winds and banded snowfall yesterday has now pushed well off to the east too, leaving behind a 1034 mb sfc high sitting over much of the Dakotas into Nebraska. Aside from a few scattered cumulus along our far eastern border, lots of sunshine is observed over the forecast area. Breezy winds continue for much of the forecast area this afternoon. The KOAX 18z RAOB shows a shallow mixed layer tapping into a lingering 25-30 kt low level jet above H9. The breeziness coupled with the cold air mass in place is resulting in wind chills ranging from the single digits to low teens for much of OAX despite forecast highs warming to the upper teens to mid 20s. The good news is that the lingering breeziness should subside by the evening hours as mixing ceases and the sfc high moves right over top. Clear skies continue into the overnight hours with lows dropping to the low to mid teens. Although winds will be noticeably lighter overnight, wind chills won't improve much as most see values in the single digits to low teens by early Tuesday morning. The cold spell will be relatively short lived as a warmer air mass at H8 advects into the Northern Plains for Tuesday. Highs are progged to reach the upper 30s in far western Iowa to low to mid 40s for much of eastern Nebraska. A weak wave at H5 sneaks through on Tuesday, but with the bulk of the synoptic scale forcing and limited moisture transport located well to our east, not really expecting much from this feature other than an increase in mid to high level cloudiness. A few CAM members show weak echoes clipping far northeast Nebraska during the day, but forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest a deep layer of dry air will limit the potential. Lows are forecast to be in the mid to upper 20s. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ The H5 western CONUS ridge will stick around for a few days, leaving the area in northwesterly flow. A stronger wave ejects southeast from Manitoba toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday, fusing with the strong H5 closed low mentioned earlier. A cold front emanating from the sfc feature will push through much of the Northern Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. Similar to Tuesday, deterministic guidance develops precip along and behind that front, but well off to our east. Have kept latest NBM extended solution which indicates dry conditions. Highs Wednesday warm to the upper 30s in far western Iowa to around 51F over our far southwest counties. Cooler temperatures return for Thursday with most areas seeing highs in the 30s to near 40F. Dry conditions are forecast as sfc high pressure sits over the area. The H5 ridge dampens slightly Thursday while a wave ejects on the eastern periphery of the ridge near the Rockies. The wave and sfc feature tracks well to our south though on Friday as sfc high pressure once again builds into the Northern Plains with most seeing similar highs to Thursday. Ridging will ensue once again for the weekend, moving into much of the central CONUS. As such, 1000-500 mb thicknesses increase implying warmer air moving into the area. Forecast highs warm to the 40s Saturday and potentially the low to mid 50s Sunday over our far west. While still several days out, a weak wave may ride on top of the ridge into the Dakotas and Nebraska Sunday generating some light QPF. Obviously lots of uncertainty still given we're several days out, but for now, have kept dry solution with NBM having sub-15% PoPs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1119 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with increasing mid/high-level cloudiness (FL150-200) overnight into Tuesday. Light south or southwest winds continue into Tuesday morning before switching to west and then northwest Tuesday afternoon at 11-12 kt. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Mead