207 FXUS66 KMTR 291705 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1005 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026 - Seasonally cool temperatures along with breezy afternoon winds persist into the middle of the week - Gradual warming trend begins towards the end of the upcoming work week - Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Wednesday morning along the Pacific coast && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 (Tonight through Tuesday) The upper level pattern over the are continues to predominately be dominated by troughing across the western United States. This will lead to seasonally cool temperatures through the work week. As the main trough system shifts to the east, a short wave trough will develop along the western periphery of the main trough following the west coast. The short wave trough will develop into a cut off low by Monday afternoon. Daytime highs today should be largely similar to those seen yesterday, with perhaps a few degrees of warming in the interior North and East Bays and a few degrees of cooling across the warmest spots of southern Monterey County. The risk of minor coastal flooding continues through Monday night along low-lying areas in the Pacific coast and the San Francisco and San Pablo Bays. The combination of thermal expansion within the Pacific ocean, a full moon on Monday, and southerly swell will account for a little over half a foot of surge over the astronomical tide. In addition, long-period southerly swell will continue to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents along the Pacific coast, particularly at south and southwest facing beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Wednesday morning, see the BEACHES section for more details. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Troughing will continue through the work week transitioning to zonal flow for the upcoming weekend, allowing a gradual warming trend to start in time for Independence Day. Towards the beginning of next week, ensemble model clusters show agreement towards a ridge building up across the Western United States, with the interaction between the ridge and any troughing over the Eastern Pacific, which would modulate how impactful the ridge ends up for our region, still to be determined. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1003 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals with clearing making its way down the Pacific Coast. Moderate to high confidence in IFR-MVFR ceilings developing at bayshore and coastal terminals respectively tonight. Diurnal winds will prevail. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northeasterly flow. Winds will back through the morning to become westerly this afternoon. Moderate confidence on a ceiling returning to the terminal tonight, likely on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Reasonable best case scenario is a donut hole develops over the terminal with stratus remaining confined on the north and west sides. SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach has low probabilities (<30%) for developing a ceiling below FL045. Reasonable best case scenario is clouds remain confined to the terminal and northward. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Currently VFR with southerly flow at both terminals. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing at SJC. Moderate confidence in an MVFR ceiling developing at OAK tonight via a stratus feed through the Golden Gate Gap. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and MVFR with westerly flow at SNS. An otter eddy in the Monterey Bay will add some complexity and uncertainty in clearing times this morning; however, clearing is expected to continue along the Pacific Coast with high confidence in VFR by the afternoon. High confidence in IFR ceilings returning to both terminals tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1003 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Strong to very strong northerly breezes will continue through Friday for the outer waters and the coastal jet region of Point Reyes, creating hazardous conditions for small craft. Frequent gale force gusts are expected across the northern outer waters and along the Point Reyes coastal jet region. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes will prevail elsewhere. Rough to very rough seas will continue through Wednesday before abating to become moderate to rough Thursday into Friday. && .BEACHES... Updated at 1225 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the Pacific Coast Beaches through Wednesday morning as long period southerly swell returns to the coast, creating an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Malarkey LONG TERM....Malarkey AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea