370 

FXUS64 KMRX 281104 AAA

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Morristown TN

604 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 603 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



- Dry and mild conditions through the weekend.



- Rain chances return the first of the week, with at least slight

  chances persisting thereafter. 



- Warming trend through the period with high temps 15 to 20

  degrees above normal by the end of the forecast period. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1215 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



A gorgeous start to the weekend yesterday will continue into 

today with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures a few degrees 

warmer. Mid to upper 60s will be common with a few readings in the

lower 70s. A rather weak frontal boundary will move through 

Sunday. However, precipitation will primarily remain to the north,

with possible low end chances of rain for far northern reaches of

the forecast area. Temperatures a touch cooler, with the greatest

difference/noticeable change across the north, where the cold 

front will have already crossed at peak heating of the day.



Rain chances for the rest of the area return during the week next

week, with repeated shortwave activity moving west to east across

the middle of the country. A potentially more pronounced system 

moves in towards the latter part of the week, under a stronger 

shortwave trough. Monday onward will at least present a slight 

chance of precipitation each day through the end of the forecast 

period. 



Though we are a ways out for specifics on next week's 

precipitation, something we're the most assured of are much 

warmer temperatures to come. The forecast period may round out 

with mid to possibly, upper 70s for the valley. 80 degrees may 

even sneak in there somewhere, especially for the southern valley.

This would be in the neighborhood of 15 to 20 degrees above 

normal for early March.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 603 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



No aviation impacts are expected this TAF period.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  46  73  45 /   0   0   0  10 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  46  68  42 /   0   0   0  20 

Oak Ridge, TN                       69  44  68  41 /   0   0   0  20 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  41  63  35 /   0   0   0  10 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...KS

AVIATION...DGS