734 

FXUS64 KMRX 280513 AAA

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Morristown TN

1213 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1211 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



- Dry and mild conditions through the weekend.



- Rain chances return the first of the week, with slight chances

  persisting thereafter.  



- Warming trend through the period with high temps 15 to 20

  degrees above normal by the end of the period. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 128 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026



Not much to talk about over the next 7 days. Dry and mild conditions 

are expected through the weekend. A dry cold front is expected to 

come through on Sunday, NBM currently has no POPs, but we will 

see an increase in clouds. Temps on Monday will be slightly cooler

behind the front, but still mild, and rain chances begin to 

increase as a weak disturbance moves through zonal flow and across

our area. Slight chance to chance POPs hang around through 

Tuesday as this disturbance slowly pushes east. The higher POPs 

are north of I-40 with lesser POPs south of I-40.



Wednesday through Friday, temperatures ramp up as ridging 

strengthens across the southeast. High temps will generally be in 

the 70s with the southern TN Valley possibly hitting 80 degrees by

Friday. NBM keeps some POPs in place during this time to account 

for a potential system coming through during this timeframe. 



Overall, no hazardous weather is expected at this point in time. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1211 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



The only potential aviation impact this period is fog at TRI late

tonight. Clear and calm conditions with a low dewpoint depression

in current obs suggest fog is possible, but model guidance is not

in good agreement. Will mention the possibility with a TEMPO for

MVFR vis, but if it does form, lower conditions are likely. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  45  73  48 /   0   0   0  10 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  45  68  45 /   0   0   0  20 

Oak Ridge, TN                       68  44  68  44 /   0   0   0  20 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  40  63  39 /   0   0   0  20 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...99

AVIATION...DGS