636 

FXUS64 KMRX 301744

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

1244 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1239 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025



- Snow showers increasingly likely for southwest VA and northeast TN 

Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Light accumulations probable.



- Moderating temperatures through the end of the week. 



- Next round of precip by Friday into early Saturday, mainly south

  of I-40.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1239 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025



Another cold night in store with overnight lows in the low to mid 

20s for most areas. If it weren't for the light winds and high 

clouds moving in, we would see even colder temps.



A warming trend begins tomorrow with highs getting back into the 

40s. A quick around round of light snow showers looks 

increasingly more likely across southwest VA and extreme northeast

TN late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. HREF probs show 

moderate probabilities to see up to 0.5 inches across portions of 

Wise, Russell, and Washington County VA, and perhaps even Johnson 

and Carter County TN. Minor travel impacts are possible during the

Thursday morning commute. Snow showers should come to an end by 

early to mid afternoon.



Models have trended further south with the Friday/Saturday system. 

The more likely areas to now see rainfall will be across our 

southern areas, especially the closer you get to the TN/AL/GA state 

lines and as well as southwest NC. Areas north of I-40 may end up 

being completely dry. The current QPF forecast for our southern 

areas is around 0.5 inches, around 0.1 inches for Knoxville, and 

none for northeast TN and southwest VA.



The weekend and into next week continues to looks mostly dry along 

with mild temperatures. Any lingering rain from Friday night should 

exit by late Saturday morning. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1239 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025



Once TRI goes VFR here in the next few hours, VFR conditions are

expected at all sites through the remainder of the forecast. TRI

may see winds gusting to around 20kts for the next few hours but

wsan't confident enough to include in TAFs.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             25  50  30  55 /   0   0   0   0 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  24  46  30  49 /   0   0   0   0 

Oak Ridge, TN                       23  46  29  49 /   0   0   0   0 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              21  41  29  43 /   0   0  10   0 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...99

AVIATION...99