229 FXUS64 KMRX 301130 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 630 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 613 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Cold and dry today. Low afternoon relative humidity values today and Wednesday. - Wind chills near zero across the higher elevations of the east TN mountains this morning. Wind chills in the teens for the Tennessee Valley this morning. - Moderating temperatures through the end of the week. - Next round of precip by Friday into early Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 558 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Reports of light coating of snow across area roadways across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Light snow showers or flurries will continue until mid-morning. Shallow moisture at 850mb combined with cold air squeezing out light snow. Have issued a SPS for potential slippery conditions during the morning rush hour. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Currently, clouds have spread across much of the region with a few light flurries across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. REFS/HREF show the clouds eroding quickly by mid to late morning. Main concern today and Wednesday will be the low dewpoints and afternoon relative humidity values. In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Plains. Temps will be cold this morning with lows in the 20s in the Tennessee Valley and in the teens in the higher elevations. Winds are much lighter than earlier today but will be steady enough to bring wind chills in the teens this morning for the Tennessee Valley and single digits or near zero in the higher elevations. Temps will be below normal today with highs in the 30s in the Tennessee Valley. A warming trend will begin Wednesday with highs getting back into the 40s. By Friday, highs will be back in the 50s for the Tennessee Valley. Dry weather will continue through Friday morning with the exception of some light, brief snow possible in Southwest Virginia Wednesday night as a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley. Little to no accumulation is expected in our Virginia counties since they are on the edge of this system. Snow chances are much better in West Virginia. By Friday, upper level flow becomes more zonal. At the surface, a low moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast Friday night. The warm front will likely be near or just south of the region. It looks like temps will remain warm enough even Friday night for an all rain event. The best chance for a soaking rain will be along and south of I-40. This looks like a fast moving system and the highest rain chances are Friday evening and overnight. The weekend looks mostly dry and mild with rain chances trending down Saturday morning. Highs will be in the 50s for the Tennessee Valley this weekend which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 A relatively shallow MVFR ceiling around 3kft is across the TAF sites. TRI has the deepest layer around 850mb which is producing some light snow showers or flurries. REFS/HREF and deterministic models show the shallow moisture eroding by mid to late morning with the help of downslope northwest winds into the valley. This will allow flight conditons to become VFR this morning. For late today mid and high level clouds will move into the region. Winds will remain west to northwest at 5 to 15 knots most of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 24 50 29 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 23 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 23 46 27 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 20 41 29 / 0 0 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...DH