502 FXUS63 KMQT 010241 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 941 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cold temperatures this weekend with highs mainly in the teens and lows in the negative single digits. - Light lake effect snow showers persist over the northwest wind snowbelts into Sunday. - A warmer pattern with daily high temperatures in the 30s and 40s is likely this coming workweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Early afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals a broad longwave trough draped across the northern Great Lakes with a few weak embedded shortwaves within. Chilly NW flow characterized by 850 mb temps between -24 and -21 C is supporting lake effect snow showers downwind of Superior. In the west half, model soundings and satellite imagery suggest plenty of dry air working to limit LES intensity, cutting off lake induced eq heights between 4-6k ft with plenty of sub-cloud sublimation action as well. Further east, the greater fetch as enabled a more banded structure to LES across Alger Co, though it appears lightening winds and aforementioned dry air entrainment may be having the same effect, as radar returns show more LES bands becoming more showery/cellular in nature. An additional 1-2" of snow is possible mainly across Alger/Luce counties through tonight. As sfc high pressure draws closer to the western lake tonight and into tomorrow morning, CAMs suggest a convergence zone setting up somewhere between Munising and Grand Marias. This may lead to a narrow band of moderate LES impacting portions of M-28 east of Munising tomorrow morning. Should this occur, it would be rather short lived as CAMs quickly kick LES showers east and eventually out of the UP through the afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure overhead Sunday and Monday will keep the rest of the area fairly quiet. Temps rebound back mostly above freezing on Monday amidst gusty southwest winds. Zonal flow sets up for next week with systems mainly only grazing the UP the first half. More widespread PoPs, albeit still on the low side (20-40%), set up for the later half of the week as deeper waves and stronger surface lows begin to move into the Upper Midwest. Deterministic guidance and their ensemble counterparts still show significant spread in the evolution of shortwaves lifting through the Great Lakes and High Plains. Given the uncertainty yet, a wintry mix is still possible. The pattern next week favors a warm up (65- 75% chance for above normal temps per the latest CPC 6-10 day outlook), with highs once again returning to the 40s for many. Lows initially in the upper teens to 20s early next week push near freezing Wednesday/Thursday nights. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 616 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 As high pressure pushes over the UP through this TAF period, expect winds to be generally 5-10 kt or less. Lake induced cloud cover remains at CMX this evening, giving MVFR ceilings. Models give a brief period where -SHSN could drop ceilings to low-end MVFR and drop vis into MVFR as well, but indications are that all sites should SCT out around 05Z tonight, giving way to VFR conditions at all sites for the remainder of the period. The exception will be at CMX, where models indicate lingering low lake-induced clouds Sunday morning, though the coverage is still expected to be SCT. On the unlikely (but ~15-30% possible) outcome that the cloud cover becomes BKN instead of SCT, MVFR would then prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 941 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Northwest winds have diminished below gale force this morning and early afternoon. Gusts will continue to fall below 15 kts area wide through Sunday. Southerly winds increase on Monday to 20-30 kts ahead of a surface trough Monday night. There is a 20-40% chance for gales to 35 kts over the east and near Isle Royale Monday afternoon and evening. Winds become northerly and fall below 20 kts Tuesday morning. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ249>251-266-267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...GS MARINE...BW