319 FXUS63 KMQT 281745 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1245 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cold temperatures this weekend with highs mainly in the teens and lows in the negative single digits. - Light lake effect snow showers over the northwest wind snowbelts into Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Early morning RAP analysis and GOES water vapor imagery place the UP underneath a shortwave trough embedded in a broader troughing pattern across the Upper Midwest and central Canada. The strong clipper system now at 985 mb over the southern tip of James Bay extends a cold front down into northern Lower MI. CAA and pressure rises continue to support blustery conditions over the east and near Lake Superior through this morning, but frequent gusts exceeding 45 mph outside the east are no longer expected. These gusts drop off around 4 am EST this morning as the strong LLJ quickly departs; maintained the wind headlines as inherited. With 850mb temps lowering to between -19C to -23C, coldest over northeastern Lake Superior, LES over the northwest wind snowbelts sets up. Thermodynamic profiles leave much to desire, so accumulation today and tonight are anticipated to be on the low side with limited if any impacts. Forecast amounts include a dusting to 2 inches in the west and up to 4 inches over the east by 7 AM EST Sunday morning. Also today, a weak disturbance tracks to the south, possibly grazing the south with a light dusting to as high as 1 inch (15-24% chance). Highs today and Sunday will be seasonably cold in the teens to low 20s; overnight lows in the single digits mainly below 0 are expected. Cold headlines are not anticipated given light winds. LES primarily becomes confined to the east on Sunday as high pressure becomes centered over the UP. Low level convergence over the east could offset the drier air and increasing anticyclonic flow, but confidence is low at this point and minor impacts would be isolated. Zonal flow sets up for next week with systems mainly only grazing the UP the first half. More widespread PoPs, albeit still on the low side (20-40%), set up for the later half of the week as deeper waves and stronger surface lows begin to move into the Upper Midwest. Particular focus is on the end of the work week when a CO low lifts through. There is plenty of spread yet in the ensemble guidance regarding track, but the 0Z deterministic guidance and the EPS favor a track further to the north. This places the UP largely in the warm sector throughout the event, leaning P-type toward rain. Given the uncertainty yet, a wintry mix is still possible. The pattern next week favors a warm up (65-75% chance for above normal temps per the latest CPC 6-10 day outlook), with highs once again returning to the 40s for many. Lows initially in the upper teens to 20s early next week push near freezing Wednesday/Thursday nights. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Lake induced cloud cover is producing MVFR ceilings over the northern tier of the UP today, with snow showers mostly relegated to the eastern half as northwest flow lingers in the wake of the departing low pressure system. Expect a gradual improvement towards VFR through the rest of the day as high pressure builds in from the west, with VFR conditions then expected to prevail for the remainder of the TAF period. However, HREF guidance does maintain around a 40% probability for MVFR cigs to redevelop tonight into Sunday morning at KIWD and KCMX. Northwest winds around 10 kt at the terminals as of 18z Sat will drop to around 5 kt this evening and remain light through the rest of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Northwest gales of 35-45 kts over the east half quickly diminish this morning as the strong low level jet departs and high pressure builds in from the northwest. Downgraded the east to a Gale Warning through 7 AM EST and canceled the west Gale Warning early. Winds over the west fall below 20 kts by this afternoon with winds around 20-25 kts in the east into the evening. Winds over the east fall below 20 kts tonight, with lakewide winds below 20 kts through Sunday night. As a result, heavy freezing spray diminishes from west to east today. Trimmed up the end time for the eastern zones Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, otherwise maintained those hazards as inherited. Southerly winds increase on Monday to 20-30 kts ahead of a surface trough Monday night. There is a 15-30% chance for gales to 35 kts over the east and near Isle Royale Monday afternoon and evening. Winds become northerly and fall below 20 kts Tuesday morning. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ243-244-264. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ245>248-265. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ249>251-266-267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...CB MARINE...77