983 FXUS63 KMQT 280529 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1229 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds up to 60 mph in the Keweenaw and 45 mph near Lake Superior are expected this evening into tonight. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect. - Seasonably cold temperatures this weekend with highs mainly in the teens and lows in the negative single digits. - Light lake effect snow showers over the northwest wind snowbelts tonight into Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 GOES water vapor imagery reveals a potent shortwave trough beginning to acquire a slight negative tilt as it digs over western Ontario this afternoon, with an attendant 991 mb surface low analyzed over north-central Ontario well north of Lake Superior. A cold front extends southwest from the low center and is readily apparent on visible satellite over western Ontario and the MN Arrowhead. Meanwhile, Upper Michigan is situated squarely within the warm sector of this strengthening system, allowing temperatures to rise into the 40s over much of the area and even into the 50s in parts of the western UP today. This is accompanied by breezy conditions as southwest winds are gusting to 20-30 mph ahead of the front as of mid afternoon. Winds will remain the primary concern going through this evening and into tonight as the surface low rapidly deepens into the low 980s near the southern end of James Bay this evening within the left exit region of a 140kt jet max crossing Lake Superior. The cold front will sweep across the UP this evening accompanied by a strong isallobaric push of around 2 mb/hr, producing very strong west-northwest winds across the Keweenaw and along the shores of Lake Superior. Ample cold air advection will help keep the strong winds going through this evening in the post frontal environment as steepening lapse rates help the core of 50 kt winds depicted at 925 mb in model soundings mix down to the surface, yielding widespread gusts to 45 mph across the northern tier of the UP and gusts as high as 60 mph along the Keweenaw. As such, wind headlines remain in place into tonight and are unchanged with the afternoon forecast package. Winds will steadily diminish from west to east overnight into Saturday morning as the system departs into Quebec and high pressure build in behind it. Today's warmup will be short-lived as temperatures plummet behind the front back into the teens by around midnight tonight. Cold temperatures will then remain the primary focus this weekend as a chilly air mass characterized by 850 mb temps around -25C settles over Lake Superior. This will correspond to high temperatures mostly in the teens for both Saturday and Sunday, though a few spots in the south-central UP could rise into the 20s. Overnight lows will fall into the single digits below zero Saturday and Sunday night, with slightly warmer temps near the lakes. Relatively light winds should preclude the need for any cold weather headlines, but could still see some wind chill values dipping into the negative teens at times this weekend. In terms of precipitation, expect some light lake effect to develop over the northwest snowbelts and linger into Saturday night in the east behind the departing system, but a lack of moisture will keep snow amounts limited to around an inch or less for the most part, with most areas of the UP remaining dry. Medium range guidance hints at a more prolonged warm up next week as ensemble clusters favor positive height anomalies with a more zonal flow pattern, yielding forecast daytime highs above freezing for much of the week. This will also keep precipitation north of the region, favoring dry conditions into at least the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Blustery conditions continue with steep pressure rises behind a cold front. Gusts of at least 25-30kts remain common at IWD and SAW over the next few hours, with higher gusts of 40kts or higher at CMX. Winds gradually decrease into Saturday morning, finally falling below 20kts into the afternoon. Meanwhile, MVFR ceilings soon settle in at all terminals as the chilly airmass over the water causes lake clouds to develop over and downwind of Superior. Confidence in any snow showers has decreased, so this has been removed from the CMX TAF. A brief period of IFR ceilings is possible there Saturday morning and afternoon. An improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR at IWD and SAW is expected closer to 00Z Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Strong low pressure passing north of the lake across Ontario this evening will maintain widespread west to northwesterly gales/storms and heavy freezing spray into tonight as strong cold air advection works into the area behind a passing cold front. Winds will diminish below gales Saturday morning and continue ramping down through Sunday as high pressure builds into the region. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for MIZ001- 003. Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for MIZ002-004- 005-084. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for MIZ006-007. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ early this morning for LSZ162-242-263. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for LSZ162. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for LSZ240>242-263. Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ243>245-264. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ243-244-264. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ245>248-265. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ246-247-249- 250. Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LSZ248-251- 265>267. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for LSZ249>251-266-267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CB AVIATION...LC MARINE...CB