601 FXUS63 KMQT 300513 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1213 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake effect snow persists for the north to northwest wind snowbelts tonight. Continued gusty winds may cause blowing and drifting snow, leading to localized reductions in visibility. - A clipper is set to bring light widespread snow generally less than an inch to the UP tomorrow P.M., reinforcing lake effect snow for the northwest wind snowbelts. - Colder temperatures are expected into the New Year with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 Afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals NNW lake effect snow behind the departing high impact system that brought heavy snow and blizzard conditions across much of the Upper Peninsula overnight through this morning. Winds are still gusting 40-50 mph as of writing this discussion, so even though the heaviest snow has departed east, blowing and drifting snow in the ongoing lake effect event will continue to create localize blizzard conditions before winds taper down into the evening. Have opted to end the previous Blizzard Warnings everywhere, and replace the warnings in the east with Winter Weather Advisories where an additional couple inches of snow and localized travel hazards remain. Regional RAP analysis shows an impressive 20 to 24 mb pressure gradient across Lake Superior as the now roughly 980 mb sfc low has reached Quebec. Higher pressure stretches back into the Plains and Front Range as ridging aloft works itself overhead. Tonight through tomorrow, the bowling ball upper low continues lifting northeast into Quebec before phasing with another shortwave and retrograding over James Bay. While this occurs, a weak clipper wave rounding the base of the upper low skirts across Upper Michigan tomorrow afternoon, providing a quick hitting burst of light snow across the area and a reinforcing shot of cold 850 mb temps near -20C that will reinvigorate lake effect snow in the northwest wind snowbelts. As winds on land become more westerly ahead of the clipper, CAM guidance suggests a Bayfield to Keweenaw convergence band in the vicinity of N Houghton county tomorrow afternoon, which may provide a locally enhanced 3-5" before becoming generic light NW lake effect snow for the typical NW LES belts. Guidance is in solid agreement that this pattern persists through the midweek to late week as the aforementioned northeast cutoff low and western US ridging become established. Aside from the snow, chilly NW flow will enable a cooler temperature pattern through the New Year with highs in the teens and occasionally single digits. Low temperatures flirting with single digits to near zero and breezy winds suggests wind chills below zero at the midnight ball drop Tuesday night. Make sure to bundle UP! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Mainly MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A period of VFR is expected at IWD this morning but it will be short lived as a clipper low brings light snow back across the area with cigs and vis falling to MVFR and IFR. Light snow exits the area tonight but lake effect snow showers will develop and impact the TAF sites, especially CMX and IWD. Lake effect snow showers could result in LIFR conditions at CMX tonight but confidence is too low at this time to put in the TAF. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 A roughly 20-24 mb pressure gradient across Lake Superior this afternoon is contributing to northerly winds gusting 45-50 kts. Have opted to downgrade the previous Storm Warnings to Gales as winds have slightly come down since this morning, however, a few storm force gusts to 50 kts may still be realized especially in the east and central lake. As the pressure gradient slackens tonight, winds taper down to gales and eventually below 35 kts in the east half by tomorrow morning. A colder period of persistent W to NW flow is expected through the mid week with of Gales 35-40 kts ramping up early Wednesday morning and persisting into early Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for MIZ006-007-013-014-085. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for LSZ245>248- 265. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ249>251-266- 267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...NL MARINE...BW