416 FXUS63 KMPX 300004 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 704 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme Heat Warning continues this evening, and Heat Advisory through Tuesday evening south & east. Heat index values approach 110F today, and 100F on Tuesday. - Low chance of thunderstorms this evening, but, if thunderstorms are able to develop they could become severe with heavy rain. - Hot & humid weather continues this week, although not nearly as intense as today. Continued low chances for thunderstorms as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 It is hot. And it will stay that way for a while, though thankfully today will be the worst of the heat impacts this week. Dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 70s for the entire region, though some pockets of 80F+ have started to pop up this afternoon. Air temperatures have been stifled a little more than expected by morning convection and afternoon cu field. Heat index values range from 100-110F this afternoon and evening, before getting some relief after sunset. This will be dependent on storm chances late this evening and overnight as a cold front looks to stall across central MN, dividing the state in half vertically. As cooler 700 mb temperatures advect in behind the front, that should provide enough forcing to overcome the cap and initiate at least scattered storms along the line. There is an explosive amount of instability (4500+ J/kg of MUCAPE), so any storms that are able to develop would likely become severe with damaging wind and heavy rainfall. The other thing to watch is a unsuspecting threat for tornadoes given the increasing amount of SRH values around sunset. There is a short 1-3 hour window of STP values jumping to 3+ just ahead of the front as the LLJ increases and surface winds decrease just enough to have a better hump to hodographs. The extent and strength of any potential tornado risk will depend on storm coverage and mode, which is uncertain right now given the widespread variance across hi-res models. There are some models, like the 18z RRFS, which have nothing develop this evening across our area. Because of this variance, PoPs are still limited, but the high end potential should still be messaged. There is a growing signal for early morning convection to advect north from Nebraska and Iowa, especially if we end up seeing less storm coverage this evening. These storms would not have as conducive of an environment for severe development, but they would have an influence on our heat impacts for Tuesday. The more storms and lingering cloud cover, the less of an impact from heat. This is exactly what we saw today across parts of central and northern MN as a bow echo raced northeast. With this uncertainty in storm and cloud coverage, we opted to issue a Heat Advisory for a number of counties across south and eastern Minnesota as well as western Wisconsin. In areas that are not drastically impacted by storms, heat indices are expected to climb to about 100F Tuesday afternoon. As the week progresses, not too much will change with the overall weather pattern. Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the eastern half of the CONUS, keeping the Upper MS Valley on the northwestern periphery of the heat dome. Our hot and muggy conditions will continue with highs anywhere between the mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heat risk will not be as much of a concern as it was today, though the persistent heat will continue to have an impact as it lingers for several days. A frontal boundary may stall out the region, which would provide several opportunities for additional storms through the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Confidence has increased in the development of a line of thunderstorms moving across western Minnesota in the next hour or two. Have converted all PROB30 groups to TEMPOs, mainly between 01z and 06z from west to east. The coverage becomes more uncertain heading into western Wisconsin. A second round of showers and thunderstorms may develop across southern Minnesota by early morning, so have included PROB30s at RWF/MKT/MSP/RNH. Heading into tomorrow afternoon, yet another round of convection is possible for southern MN and western WI, but have left any mention out for now. Winds are still southerly and breezy with gusts around 25kts. A slight shift to the southwest is expected overnight into tomorrow with speeds decreasing to around 10kts. KMSP...Best timing for TSRA looks to be sometime after 03z. Will be able to narrow down the window once the line develops in the next hour or two. As mentioned above, included a PROB30 for TSRA early tomorrow morning. Southwesterly winds 10-15kts are expected late tonight through the end of the period. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts. THU...VFR. Chc PM -TSRA. S 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. S 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Heat Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for Chippewa-Douglas- Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine. Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for Anoka- Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault- Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright. Heat Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault- Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Nicollet- Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright. WI...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-St. Croix. Heat Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-St. Croix. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for Rusk. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...Dye