097 FXUS63 KMPX 291003 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 503 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot & humid today. Heat Index values of 100-110 degrees this afternoon with little cooling relief overnight. - Low chance of thunderstorms this evening, but, if thunderstorms are able to develop they could become severe with heavy rain. - Hot & humid weather continues this week, although not nearly as intense as today. Continued low chances for thunderstorms as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 459 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Very hot & humid weather develops today as strong warm advection continues over the Upper Midwest, in response to a deepening & anomalously strong low over the Canadian Prairies. The ridging aloft over the region peaks this afternoon with 700 mb temperatures of 17C on the upper end of climatology for June & July. There will be some stubborn low stratus to clear out this morning across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin as rich moisture gets trapped under the stout capping inversion, but otherwise we should see plenty of sunshine today allowing for temperatures to easily reach the low to mid 90s. The very muggy dew points in the mid to upper 70s being advected in from Iowa will limit any run at 100 degrees today, but this will only make the heat index values worse as we are still expected to have a "feels like" temperatures of 100-110 degrees for much of the area this afternoon & evening. The very hot & humid conditions will also create an explosively unstable atmosphere with most-unstable CAPE values of 5000-6000 J/kg expected to develop this afternoon. To go along with the extreme instability, seasonably strong wind shear values of 30-40 kts will be present across the region as the wind fields strengthen in response to the deepening low to our north. This is a high-ened environment for severe weather we'll have over the region this afternoon, BUT, the very strong capping of 15+ degrees C at 700 mb *should* limit any storm develop the Dakotas & northern Minnesota. Things change a bit late this evening, as a surface cold front moves eastwards through the area & our temperatures aloft begin to decrease. Some of the larger-scale global models are more robust at initiating a line of convection along the front late this evening & overnight as our 700 mb temperatures cool to more reasonable levels. Instability values will be slightly lower than this afternoon, but still very unstable, so any storms that would be able to initiate tonight could likely become severe with damaging wind gusts & heavy rainfall. Meanwhile high- resolution models are much more sparse with initiation along the front tonight, potentially picking up on some sort of subsidence response to the intense convection expected off to our north. It'll be a classic conditional summertime thunderstorm forecast: probabilities are low (20-30%) that thunderstorms are able to develop, but, the chance for severe weather & heavy rain is high if they do. be sure to monitor forecast trends through this afternoon & evening. Tomorrow through the holiday weekend, we begin a stretch of mostly similar days as the ridging aloft becomes entrenched over the region. Hot & humid weather continues, although not nearly as hot as today, with max heat index values of 90 to 100 degrees expected daily. Periodic chances for thunderstorms are also present as a number of weak disturbances traverse northwards around the ridge, and any of these thunderstorms complexes could pose a threat for severe weather & heavy rain. Models are widely scattered on resolving these impulses (as expected) so precip probability forecasts are going to remain very broad brushed, but we do look to have higher chances for thunderstorms & heavy rain during the morning hours Tuesday & Wednesday. These morning thunderstorm chances could also impact our forecast temperatures as any day with morning precip & cloud cover with have significantly cooler temperatures than currently forecast. As for daily temperature trends, there is a noticeable departure between the ECMWF & GFS suite of guidance, with the ECMWF members trending much cooler midweek through the weekend. ECMWF AI/ensemble/deterministic guidance suggests we'll see temperatures more in the mid to upper 80s while the GFS members still depict highs in the 90s most days. Excessive heat conditions with heat indices of 100-105 still look likely again tomorrow afternoon across the metro & western Wisconsin, but the heat threat looks more uncertain beyond that. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Scattered showers and storms will continue for the next few hours across central MN north of I-94 and portions of western WI. Activity will continue to lift northeast and out of the forecast area by 08-09z. Skies remain BKN to OVC with CIGs at 2-5 kft leading to IFR and MVFR conditions at some of the terminals. Skies for MSP, MKT, RWF are becoming FEW to SCT at 4-8 kft. Isolated instances of IFR to MVFR CIGs remain possible through the overnight and early morning hours. AXN is the most likely to see LIFR as CIGs drop to around 400 feet. RAP forecast soundings at AXN show deep low-level saturation for most of tonight so thinking mist/drizzle will occur into Monday morning. Visibilities as a result will drop to at least 1 1/2sm. Clouds should begin to lift and break apart after 12z Monday, with VFR likely by the afternoon. Winds remain predominately out of the S/SE at 10-15 knots, becoming 7-12 through the morning hours. Winds will become gusty out of the south with sustained winds around 20 knots and gusts to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening. KMSP...Isolated instances of MVFR CIGs through the morning. By mid-morning timeframe, skies will continue to clear with VFR conditions expected through the day. Winds generally light at 7-12 knots out of the SE through the morning, becoming gusty out of south at 15-20 knots sustained with gusts to 25-30 knots. There is a chance for -SHRA or -TSRA after 03z but confidence is low so no mention in 06z TAF. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts. WED...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts. THU...VFR. Chc PM -TSRA. S 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT tonight for Chippewa-Douglas-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift- Todd-Yellow Medicine. Extreme Heat Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT tonight for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago- Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs- Morrison-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott- Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright. WI...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT tonight for Rusk. Extreme Heat Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT tonight for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce- Polk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...LPR