531 

FXUS63 KMPX 010516

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1116 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Snow has ended across the region for today. A narrow band of 4

  to 7 inches fell across southern Minnesota.



- Cool weekend followed by a gradual warmup and a couple 

  chances for rain/snow next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Light snow continues to fall across southern Minnesota after a

period of heavy snow this morning. Several reports of 5 to 7

inches have been received from ND through southeast MN, but most

are within a very narrow corridor. The heaviest corridor locally

lined up from Lamberton to St. Peter and just south of

Rochester. The snow still extends into North Dakota, but 

regional radar shows the intensity waning universally. Perhaps 

another inch will fall and then the snow will taper off early 

this evening. High pressure will build into the Upper Midwest 

for the rest of the weekend with temperatures remaining below 

normal. Clouds should keep lows from dropping off significantly 

tonight, but if enough breaks form late there could be some 

subzero temperatures across southern MN where today's snow fell.



The high will shift east to New England Monday and return flow

will bring a warming trend through midweek. A low pressure system

will track east across the central Plains to the mid Mississippi

Valley by early Tuesday. Chances for rain or snow continue 

across much of the region, highest probabilities across southern

MN. If snow does materialize, any accumulations would likely be

light, under an inch. Another system could glance us to the

southeast Tuesday night and early Wednesday, bringing the next

low chance for rain and/or snow. 



The pattern undergoes a more interesting transformation mid to

late week as a subtropical ridge builds and parks itself across

the eastern U.S. and a deep trough develops across the Rockies.

Several disturbances will eject east from the trough and could 

spawn a couple impressive systems next weekend into early the 

following week. There remains a lot of spread with how such 

disturbances eject or whether a large upper low cuts off over 

the Desert Southwest. The main story is the Upper Midwest will 

be in the battle zone and confidence is low on any details at 

this range. The way a system develops and tracks will determine

whether we stay cold and snowy or very warm and rainy. 

Temperatures in the warm sector will very likely reach the 70s.

Several members of the ECMWF ensemble hint at that possibility 

even here with a favored storm track across southern Canada.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1116 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Light and variable winds this period under VFR ceilings. Little

to no weather impact to aviation expected.



KMSP...No additional concerns.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts. 

TUE...MVFR. Chc MVFR/-SN early. Wind VRB 5 kts. 

WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Borghoff

AVIATION...NDC