471 FXUS63 KMPX 301144 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 544 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Twp clippers will bring minor snow accumulations today and Wednesday. - Cold start to the New Year, with sub-zero morning lows and highs in the single digits. Temperatures modify back into the 20s next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Clouds have increased overnight ahead of today's clipper system. The increased cloud cover and weak warm air advection have allowed temperatures to slowly rise overnight. A warm front across western MN will continue east this morning. Temperatures will rebound back into the low 30s for highs by late this afternoon/early this evening across MN. The clipper will track from southern Manitoba early this morning to northern WI this afternoon. A period of light snow will accompany the system this morning and could bring accumulation of around an inch to areas along and east of the Mississippi River. The light snow will end as the DGZ layer dries this afternoon, but continued saturation from just above the surface to about 8kft and very weak Omega throughout the layer may allow areas of light freezing drizzle to develop. Any freezing drizzle that develops will end late in the afternoon as the saturated layer becomes shallower. Quick on the heels of the first clipper, a second one will track from Alberta this evening to Nebraska midday Wednesday. More light snow will spread southeast, but this time a little farther southwest. Slightly higher snow ratios are expected to offset the lighter QPF. There will be two DGZ layers, one between 10-15kft AGL, and the second from the surface to 5kft AGL thanks to a renewed shot of arctic air. However, lift will be weak and winds will be very strong in the upper level DGZ which should fracture the dendrites. Steep low level lapse rates will reside within the lower DGZ, potentially allowing for steadier snow showers at times. All that being said, it should be another few hour event that leads to around an inch of accumulation. The longer range pattern into early next week will feature a ridge across the western U.S. and a trough in the northeast. Like the next couple days, there may be a couple weak clippers passing through capable of brief periods of light snow or flurries. There are no larger storms on the horizon. Temperatures will generally remain below normal, but a rebound toward normal may occur Sunday and Monday as the pattern flattens out a little and we're able to build in slightly milder air. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 540 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 A swift moving clipper is moving southeast across northern MN this morning. The clipper will produce a ~4-hr period of light snow at the central MN (AXN/STC/MSP) and western WI (RNH/EAU) terminals over the coming hours. MVFR ceilings and varying durations of IFR visibility will accompany the snow showers. Minor snow accumulations, say up to an inch or so, will be possible at the aforementioned terminals. Confidence in impacts from light snow is lower at RWF & MKT due to the track of the system. However, observational trends will need to be monitored and opted to maintain the PROB30 at MKT for MVFR snow showers later this morning. Snow will end from northwest to southeast, but the lower ceilings will remain in place. Forecast soundings indicate that a period of freezing drizzle/mist may develop trailing the snow showers. Confidence was too low to include in the TAFs, but will need to monitor trends and AMD as necessary should -FZDZ become a greater concern. Southwesterly winds turn northwesterly today and may gust up to ~20kts across western MN. Looking ahead, another clipper is forecast to produce light snow at most terminals tomorrow. KMSP...Maintained the TEMPO that was added overnight for MVFR cigs and IFR visibility associated with light snow later this morning. Snow accumulations up to one inch possible. A lower confidence, but higher impact portion of the forecast involves the potential for isolated instances of freezing drizzle following the snow showers this afternoon. No mention in the TAF, but will need to monitor observational trends should freezing drizzle develop west of the terminal this afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Strus