729 FXUS64 KMOB 292341 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 641 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Summertime heat continues through this week with heat indices as high as 103 to 107 any given day. Heat indices may approach heat advisory criteria around 108 Tuesday for most locations. - Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday through late week. A strong to severe thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out each afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 The forecast remains on track and no updates are needed. SS/97 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Through Thursday...an upper high centered over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley meanders northeast then east, eventually settling over the southern Mid-Atlantic region. With the shifting of the upper high, several rounds of shortwave energy moving around the shifting upper high gets directed over the northern Gulf coast. A surface ridge stretching southwest along the Appalachians remains disorganized as a surface low attempts to organize off the Fl/Ga/SC/NC coast. It remains organized enough for a band of increased moisture (precipitable h20 values rising above 2") to move over the forecast area in the Tuesday through Wednesday time frame before a drier airmass moves over the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain chances increase into mid week, with Tuesday into Wednesday time frame worrisome for the short term. Guidance is advertising over land areas, MLCapes rising into the 2000-3000J/kg range Tuesday and Wednesday, with DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg range. Wind shear is modest at best, with low helicities (<50 m^2/s^2) and bulk wind shear 25kts or less. With these numbers, strong to severe, mainly pulse type storms, are possible Tuesday into Wednesday over land areas. Along the coast is the worrisome area. With variable, diurnally driven low flow along the coast, this area sees upticks in low level helicities along with boundary layer instability over the warmer Gulf waters. Some guidance is advertising enough instability in the lowest levels combined with any residual boundaries from the inland convection for spinners over and south of the coast late Tuesday through Tuesday night. With the drier airmass moving over the forecast area, rain chances decrease for Thursday. Looking at temperatures, high temperatures well above seasonal norm mid to upper 90s today see a downturn into Wednesday, into the around 90 to low 90s with increased cloud cover and precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday. High temperatures see a bit of a rebound Thursday, into the low to mid 90s, as drier air moves over the forecast area. Heat Indices rising into the 100-108 range or a bit higher are indicated this afternoon and again Tuesday as the band of increased moisture moves over the forecast area. With this run of guidance being the first to indicate this, am holding off on issuing any heat advisory for now. Thursday night through Monday...an active upper pattern over the northern half of the Conus moves the upper ridge off, with a mean upper trough setting up over the Southeast Sunday into Monday. Rain chances increase for Sunday into Monday in response, with temperatures dropping from above seasonal norms Friday to below by Monday, with the increase in rain coverage and loss of upper subsidence. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, onshore flow remains modest at best, helping to limit more organized onshore swell on the coast. The tidal cycle also decreases, helping to keep risk of Rip Currents Low through the forecast. /16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions last through the period. Southerly winds will wane tonight after sunset and become light and variable through the overnight. Winds prevail of the northwest to north tomorrow at 5-10 knots with some localized gusts up to 15 knots, especially along the coast. Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow afternoon into the evening moving in from the east. These are accompanied by stronger wind gusts and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within the strongest storms. SS/97 && .MARINE... Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 A more diurnally driven daytime onshore night time offshore is expected through the forecast. A passing upper system will bring an increased risk of strong to severe storms to area waters Tuesday through Wednesday. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 97 76 93 / 0 40 40 30 Pensacola 78 96 78 92 / 0 60 40 20 Destin 79 95 79 91 / 0 70 30 10 Evergreen 75 95 74 93 / 0 60 40 30 Waynesboro 75 97 76 94 / 0 20 20 40 Camden 76 93 75 91 / 0 30 40 20 Crestview 76 97 75 94 / 0 60 40 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$