629 FXUS64 KMOB 310525 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1125 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 - A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through 9 AM CST this morning for coastal counties of southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle near I-10 as wind chills fall into the 20 to 25 degree range. - Moderate to occasionally strong winds over the marine area continue to create hazardous conditions for small craft, diminishing through daybreak this morning. Strong winds may return Friday night into Saturday potentially creating hazardous conditions for small craft. - The rip current risk will steadily increase Friday into Saturday, potentially becoming a High risk for life threatening rip currents late Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Cool and dry weather continues to prevail across the region today and Thursday as the forecast area remains on the backside of upper troughing. We will see a fairly substantial period of warming throughout the week. Afternoon highs go from middle and upper 50's today to upper 60's and lower 70's by Friday. Overnight lows follow suit, with the area starting off this morning in the middle to upper 20's, warming to the upper 50's to near 60 by Friday night. A Cold Weather Advisory continues for the coastal counties of of southwest Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as wind chill values dip into the lower to middle 20's through 9 AM CST. Once we get into late week, we see a pattern shift with surface high pressure moving east and a surface low developing to our west. This is in response to an approaching upper trough which will lead to the most impactful weather late week into the weekend. At a minimum, we'll see significantly increased rain chances late Friday into Saturday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. Unsurprisingly it seems there is an upward trend in the anticipated quality of low level moisture and likewise instability being hinted at by latest deterministic and ensemble guidance overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. With ample upper difluence overspreading the area and ample deep layer shear around 50 knots, it stands to reason that any further upticks in anticipated instability could lead to at least low end severe weather potential over portions of the forecast area. Similarly, guidance has been trending somewhat slower with the progression of the upper trough across the area and likewise the associated surface low, allowing for more time to advect warm, moist air into the area. The one thing going against a more robust threat at this point is diurnal timing, with the current bulk of the most robust shower and thunderstorm coverage being prior to daybreak Saturday through mid morning Saturday, however if the slowing trend continues that could also put the bulk of the more robust shower and thunderstorm coverage into a more favorable diurnal timeframe later in the morning. At this point, it's something to watch as we move forward through the remainder of the week to see how things trend. Later during the day Saturday into Saturday night a cold front moves through, but this push of cold air will pale in comparison to the cold, dry airmass we have seen recently. Expect afternoon highs to only get knocked down Sunday into the lower and middle 60's with lower 70's returning by early next week. Overnight lows bottom out in the upper 30's to lower 40's Sunday night, rebounding into the upper 40's and lower 50's by Tuesday night. A Low risk of rip currents presently exists across area beaches of southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, with the threat increasing to a Moderate risk by Friday and a High risk by late Friday night into Saturday. The rip current risk will likely diminish quickly in the wake of a cold front late Saturday, likely becoming a Moderate risk by Saturday night and a Low risk for Sunday. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 VFR flight category continues to prevail through the day today. Winds remain out of the northwest at 5 to 10 knots through daybreak, becoming westerly by late morning into the early afternoon. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Moderate to strong northerly winds diminish prior to daybreak this morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the offshore 20 to 60 nautical mile marine waters through 3 AM CST. A light to moderate northwesterly to westerly flow follows during the day today through Thursday. A southwesterly flow develops Thursday night and strengthens through Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary once again for much of the marine waters Friday night through Saturday. Winds shift out of the northwest late Saturday as a cold front moves through. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 49 28 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 49 32 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 50 34 55 44 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 47 26 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 46 26 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 44 25 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 49 26 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ263>266. FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ201>206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ670-675. && $$