875 FXUS62 KMLB 281808 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 108 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 - A Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms exists today from central Osceola and southern Brevard counties to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast; lightning strikes, gusty winds, and small hail are possible - Mostly dry conditions are forecast through next week, though isolated onshore-moving showers cannot be ruled out from Monday onward - Beach and boating conditions deteriorate next week as onshore winds strengthen each day and seas build && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Today-Tonight...Showers and a few storms are ongoing this morning, particularly from Kissimmee and Melbourne southward, supported by a 500mb shortwave moving overhead. The more organized activity has produced an estimated 1-3" per hour rainfall rates, and recent MRMS QPE shows a couple swaths of 0.50-1.50" over the southern half of the area. At times, occasional to frequent lightning has occurred, but most of the storms appear to be elevated for now (not much in the way of surface gusts). CAMs are only now catching up to current radar observations, showing a persistent batch of moderate to heavy showers moving across the southern half of east central Florida through 8 AM. A few embedded storms are possible as well, though the severe threat should remain very low. A cold front is forecast to slowly move south across east central Florida today. It is ahead of this front, mainly from Osceola and southern Brevard counties southward, that additional convection is anticipated from late morning into the afternoon. Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast counties have the highest chance at seeing storms this afternoon and early in the evening (NBM Prob Thunder ~30%), and one or two could be on the strong side. Gusty winds and hail would be the main threats, and per usual, any sea breeze/storm interactions will be monitored for brief rotation. Most activity will dissipate prior to or around midnight as drier air filters south behind the front. Temperatures this afternoon will range widely from the upper 60s in Volusia County to the low 80s around Lake Okeechobee. This separation in temps is due to the cold front moving through northern locations first, veering winds out of the north. Lows tonight into Sunday morning will end up several degrees colder compared to this morning, falling into the mid and upper 50s (except for the low/mid 60s around Lake O and the Treasure Coast). Sunday-Monday...The passing cold front moves toward south Florida and the Keys on Sunday as high pressure returns to our area. Surface flow turns northeasterly Sunday, then easterly on Monday with gusts around 20 mph in the afternoon. Model soundings stay rather dry on Sunday for most of the area, so even a lingering 20-30% chance of showers across Martin County may be oversold. Any moisture leftover will be confined to the lowest levels, so the thinking is that most of east central Florida will return to drier conditions Sunday. The story changes a bit on Monday as onshore flow returns, allowing a bit more low-level moisture to support shallow marine showers pushing toward the coast. Still, soundings are rather dry, so coverage of coastal showers should remain low. Temperatures closer to normal for the beginning of March are forecast Sunday (highs in the 70s) with slightly above normal temps coming back on Monday. Tuesday-Friday...An expansive surface high will push offshore from the Northeast U.S. on Tuesday moving over the north-central Atlantic by mid week. At the same time, mid/upper ridging builds over the Southeast U.S., remaining in place through much of the week. A slow-moving surface front is progged to approach north Florida Tuesday/Wednesday before dissipating north of our area. Onshore flow remains persistent through the middle and latter part of the week, aiding in increased moisture return. Models suggest a better chance for coastal showers pushing inland will occur mid to late week. That said, the QPF is very light through Friday (less than 0.10" most places). Breezy to gusty conditions are forecast each afternoon, especially along the coast as the sea breeze forms, with temperatures climbing into the 80s for most by Thursday and Friday. The warmer, mainly dry pattern looks to stick around into next weekend as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue today, particularly from Cape Canaveral southward, as a cold front drifts south across the waters. A stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon (gusty winds, lightning, and hail), mainly south of Sebastian Inlet. Behind the front, winds veer northerly, reaching 15 knots over the Volusia waters this afternoon. High pressure builds overhead Sunday into next week, allowing winds to gradually veer more onshore. Poor to hazardous boating conditions return Monday into Tuesday as persistent easterly winds (15-20 knots with higher gusts) build seas to 6-9 feet by Tuesday afternoon. Seas are forecast to remain 6-7 feet across the Gulf Stream through Wednesday. Onshore-moving showers may increase in coverage from Monday through mid week, pushing farther inland across the Florida Peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1256 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Cold front draped near TIX-MCO attm with LIFR/IFR CIGs north of the front (DAB/SFB/LEE) and this will only gradually improve to MVFR at best this afternoon. MVFR CIGs at MCO should improve to VFR CIGs this afternoon. Although TS chances are low, have adjusted MCO to add VCTS btwn 20Z-23Z for better messaging for CWSU JAX. TS threat is higher to the south in ZMA AOR. Based on radar trends, have added a TEMPO for MVFR TSRA at VRB-SUA this afternoon and added VCTS to MLB. Light north winds MCO northward behind the front with NE to ENE winds behind the sea breeze MLB southward. CIGs will drop to IFR/LIFR again tonight with light north winds. On Sun, NE winds will increase 10-14 knots with some higher gusts along the coast with VFR conds aft 15Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 A cold front over north Florida is forecast to very slowly move south across the area today. Rain chances remain around 30 to 50 percent through early afternoon before additional showers and lightning storms develop from mid afternoon through early evening (particularly Melbourne southward). Storms will be capable of occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, and small hail. Lightning could lead to new fire starts. Light winds gradually veer out of the north behind the passing front this afternoon and evening. Drier air moves in Sunday with only a low chance for showers or an isolated storm over the far southern Treasure Coast. Onshore showers will resume as a breezy east wind returns next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 56 73 56 76 / 0 0 0 20 MCO 58 77 58 79 / 10 0 0 20 MLB 60 76 61 77 / 30 10 10 20 VRB 61 77 61 78 / 30 20 20 20 LEE 55 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 56 76 57 80 / 10 0 0 20 ORL 58 77 58 80 / 10 0 0 20 FPR 60 78 61 79 / 30 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Kelly