224 FXUS62 KMLB 301746 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1246 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1245 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Wind chill values are forecast to reach the mid-20s to mid-30s overnight tonight into early Wednesday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all but coastal Martin County. - A Freeze Warning is now in effect for Lake and Inland Volusia counties late tonight into Wednesday morning, as temperatures reach the freezing mark. - Hazardous boating conditions today, especially over the Gulf Stream. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Today-Wednesday...A mostly dry, but potent, cold front continues southward through central Florida prior to sunrise this morning. Temperatures ahead of the front remain in the mid-60s as of around 2AM, while northern portions in the area have fallen into the lower 50s. Colder, drier air will continue to spread southward through the forecast area over the next several hours, with the front expected to move into south Florida early this morning. Today, much below normal temperatures are forecast, with highs only reaching the upper 50s to near 60 along and north of I-4. To the south, areas look to remain in the lower to mid-60s. These temperatures are around 9-12 degrees below normal for late December. Breezy northwesterly winds of 8-12 mph, with gusts to around 20 mph at times, will make daytime temperatures feel a couple of degrees even cooler this afternoon. It will be dry, as PWATs fall below 0.5", though scattered mid to upper level clouds will linger. Forecast PWATs are expected to be around the 10th percentile or less for the date based on XMR sounding climatology. Tonight, clearing skies and dew points in the upper teens to lower 20s will provide good conditions for temperatures to plummet after sunset. Wednesday morning low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 30s for nearly all of east central Florida. The coldest spots are expected to dip to near freezing, namely across Lake and inland Volusia Counties. Have maintained the Freeze Watch for now, as forecast temperatures remain near 32 degrees and confidence on whether freezing temperatures will persist for 2+ hours is not quite high enough. Regardless, HREF continues to suggest a 20-50% (or locally higher) probability of at least briefly reaching 32 degrees or less in the Freeze Watch area. In addition, northwest winds 5-10 mph overnight will create wind chill values in the upper 20s to lower 30s across nearly all of the forecast area. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all but coastal Martin County, where wind chills look to remain in the mid- 30s. Wind chills this cold could be hazardous for those without access to adequate warmth, clothing, or shelter. Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will continue into Wednesday, as PWATs remain near record low levels for the date. Highs will once again struggle to reach 60 degrees along and north of I-4, with the lower to mid-60s forecast for southern areas. Temperatures moderate somewhat Wednesday night, as dew points creep into the lower 30s and winds slacken. However, overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s remain forecast for much of the area and wind chills in the lower 30s will continue. While conditions at this time look to preclude the need for any freeze products, patchy frost has been added to the forecast for rural interior locations. Will also need to monitor the need additional Cold Weather Advisories, though current forecast wind chills remain near to just above criteria. Thursday-Friday...The new year begins with high pressure over the Gulf building eastward through late week. Meanwhile, zonal flow builds in aloft Friday behind an upper level trough passing through Thursday. No precipitation remains forecast, with dry air lingering over the Florida peninsula. Lighter winds will back westerly into Friday, with a warming trend beginning. Highs in the mid to upper 60s Thursday will become nearer to normal on Friday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will also warm through the period, remaining in the mid-40s to lower 50s by Friday night. Saturday-Monday...Yet another cold front is forecast to move through the Florida peninsula this weekend, as an upper level trough moves through the area. Rain chances return, with isolated to scattered showers possible Saturday into Saturday night. PoPs currently 20- 30%, mainly across northern portions of the area. Drier conditions return late weekend and into early next week, though ambient air is not expected to be as dry as around the New Year's holiday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast during the daytime hours, as highs reach the mid to upper 70s, while overnight lows remain in the 50s. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Today-Wednesday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions today behind a cold front. North-northwesterly winds up to 20-25 kts this morning will diminish somewhat into the afternoon, but remain up to 15-20 kts into this evening before becoming 10-15 kts Wednesday. Seas 6-9 ft early today will be highest in the Gulf Stream and remain up to 4- 6 ft in that area into Wednesday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of the local Atlantic waters. While they are expected to expire from north to south this afternoon and into this evening, they have been extended through much of tonight for the Gulf Stream south of the Cape. Thursday-Saturday...Improved boating conditions through late week, as high pressure moves eastward from the Gulf and across the Florida peninsula. Northwest winds early in the period back southwesterly into the weekend. Winds generally around 15 kts or less, but could see boating conditions deteriorate once again later in the weekend behind yet another cold front. Seas lingering up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Thursday, otherwise seas 2-4 ft. Dry conditions through late week, then increasing chances for showers Saturday into Saturday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1245 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR has resumed at all sites and will continue thru the period. SCT/BKN 150-250 will linger for some time before gradual clearing occurs after 03z-06z Wed. WNW winds 5-12 kt will weaken a bit overnight, returning to 10 kt or less everywhere after 15z Wed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Breezy and dry conditions behind a cold front will lead to heightened fire weather sensitivity today. Northwest winds 8-12 mph are forecast this afternoon, as min RH falls to the upper 20s to lower 30s over the interior. Fortunately, the highest winds are expected along the coast, where min RH looks to remain in the 35-45% range. Winds are forecast to slacken through mid to late week, though min RH near 25-30% is expected area-wide Wednesday. Will see conditions begin to improve Thursday, though dry conditions will continue with min RH as low as 30-35% across portions of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 34 58 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 37 58 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 37 61 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 36 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 34 57 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 35 59 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 37 58 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 36 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547- 647-747. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ041-044- 144. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550- 552. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ555-572-575. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ570. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leahy AVIATION...Schaper