021 FXUS63 KMKX 010009 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 609 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - West to east band of 2-4 inches of snow with narrow swath exceeding 4 inches setting up from Iowa/Sauk counties east through Ozaukee/northern Milwaukee counties. Lighter snow expect outside of the band. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM in Dodge, Washington, Ozaukee, Jefferson, Waukesha, and Milwaukee Counties. - Gradually warming trend through next week with periodic precipitation chances through the end of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 600 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 850-700 mb frontogenesis & attendant banded snowfall is contracting into the southeast corner of the area early this evening. Majority of 0.5"+/hr snowfall rates are thus concentrated in far southeastern Wisconsin approaching the 6 PM hour, with rapid improvements noted in observations moving northwest. Have thus allowed the western half of the Winter Weather Advisory (two tiers of counties from Columbia-Dane west) to expire as scheduled at 6 PM CST. Have maintained the eastern half of the advisory (two tiers of counties from Dodge-Jefferson east to Lake Michigan) given aforementioned rates & noted impacts on roadways. Band is drifting toward the WI-IL border/outside of the existing Advisory area, though decreasing radar reflectivity trends & increasing forward speed of snow should preclude the need for any southward expansions of headlines. Budget extra travel time if taking to the roads in southeast Wisconsin over the next 1-2 hours. Snow should conclude for the majority of the region by late evening as high pressure continues to settle in regionally. Will, however, be monitoring for some light lake effect near the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline through the predawn hours Sunday. Lake surface - 850 mb temperature differences are on the marginal side per RAP forecast soundings, though could be sufficient for some pockets of light snow shower development as northeast boundary layer winds persist. Don't currently anticipate great organization in any lake effect snow showers, which should keep hourly rates down. In the event that a few lake effect snow showers make it ashore, some light additional accumulation (~trace - 1 inch) would be possible. Will provide updated thinking following the evening forecast update. Quigley && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 This Afternoon and Tonight: After models bouncing around, finally seeing the band of snow showing its cards. Seeing the band develop from Sauk County down through Kenosha early this afternoon. Expect this band to set more west the east through the afternoon from Sauk/Iowa Counties through northern Milwaukee/Ozaukee counties. Generally expect the 1-3 inch accumulations to fall within this corridor. Given the forcing being 850-700mb frontogenesis banding along with reports upstream, could not rule out seeing totals exceed 3 inches. Main concern with this band will be the drops in visibility of less than 1 mile along with quick accumulations of packable snow leaning toward the drier side. Thus resulting in slick travel conditions, especially for elevated and untreated surfaces. Given the band fairly progressive movement along with trends of lower QPF as drier Arctic air pushes in from the north, think that is enough to keep totals in the 1-3 inch range and below winter weather advisory level for our neck of the woods. However, still cannot rule out a short-fused issuance, especially if the band sits over an area longer than expected with totals nearing 4 inches. Otherwise areas across our east central counties from Marquette through Sheboygan may still see some light snow, but drier air for the strong Arctic high to the north will limit accumulating snow too far north. But still could see accumulations generally around an inch for southern portions of the counties with less than an inch the further north you go. Areas south of the band (south of I-94) are bit more saturated and will also see some snow accumulations, but generally around an inch or so as the forcing remains to the north. Expect the band of frontogenesis to wobble through southern WI through the afternoon before departing in the evening as the shortwave trough lifts east. However, looking to see northeasterly flow set up off of Lake Michigan through the evening and tonight. This looks be enough convergence to form a lake effect band of snow given delta T's from Lake Michigan and temps aloft around 13C. While this is borderline threshold for lake effect snow, especially as the synoptic forcing shifts east, still is a potential to see additional snowfall for southeastern WI through tonight and picking up an additional inch or two, depending on where/if the LES band sets up. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 215 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Sunday through Saturday: High pressure builds in behind the snow for Sunday with drier and quiet conditions. Looking at temps in the upper 40s to lower 30s. Then southerly flow and milder temps return to southern WI for the start of the week as high pressure slides into the eastern Great Lakes. The milder trend will continue through much of the week with near normal through midweek and the potential for above normal temps continues through the end of the week. Accompanying this milder pattern will be a bit more activity with periodic precip chances beginning Monday night into Tuesday. Continue to see models and ensemble hint at a mid-level disturbance traverse across the Midwest as low-level WAA builds in from the south. Still some question on precip type with this system being in between the departing colder airmass and ahead of a warmer one. Thus expect snow to wintry overnight Monday transition to more of a wintry to rain into Tuesday. Additional mid-level troughs are expected to trek across the region midweek through the end of the week, but continue to see timing and track difference between ensembles/models. Nevertheless milder temps and increase PoPs chances expected through the end of the week. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 605 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 MVFR/IFR flight categories continue in southeast Wisconsin through mid-evening as a band of moderate snow shifts southeast. Expect pockets of snowfall rates to 0.5"/hour in this snow band, though duration of said rates will be brief. Snow will end by late evening at all terminals. Will be monitoring for some lake effect snow potential through the predawn hours, particularly in the vicinity of southeast Wisconsin terminals. Confidence in impacts remains low-moderate as of the 00Z forecast, so have handled potential with PROB30 groups at ENW and MKE for the time-being. Will monitor for possible TEMPO or prevailing groups through tonight. Rates at or below 0.25"/hour are expected in any lake effect development. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 215 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Low pressure continues to lift northeast this afternoon with breezy northerly winds lingering across the lake through tonight. Then a strong Arctic high pressure builds across the Upper Midwest into Sunday and gradually works it way east across the Upper Great Lakes through Monday. Expect lighter winds to accompany this high pressure and eventually turn southerly Monday into midweek. Expect winds to turn more east-southeast through midweek as a low pressure system develops and lift in from the Plains. For the nearshore waters, waves may approach small craft conditions at times later tonight into Sunday morning south of North Point Lighthouse, and again Monday afternoon into Tuesday north of Port Washington. Additional small craft conditions may develop at times through the end of the week. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-WIZ065- WIZ066 until 8 PM Saturday. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee