214 FXUS63 KMKX 282014 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 214 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - West to east band of 2-4 inches of snow with narrow swath exceeding 4 inches setting up from Iowa/Sauk counties east through Ozaukee/northern Milwaukee counties. Lighter snow expect outside of the band. Winter Weather Advisory issued. - Gradually warming trend through next week with periodic precipitation chances through the end of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 215 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Given upstream obs of 4-6 inches of snow within the core of the snow band along with webcam images from southeastern MN, have elected to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the middle tier of counties from Sauk/Iowa east to Washington/Waukesha counties until this evening. Still looking +4 inches in the west to east band surrounding with 1-3 inches outside of the heaviest part. Otherwise, expect a sharp cutoff in snowfall totals on either side of the snow band, especially on the north side where strong Arctic high pressure continues to build south and push drier air into central WI. Wagner && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 This Afternoon and Tonight: After models bouncing around, finally seeing the band of snow showing its cards. Seeing the band develop from Sauk County down through Kenosha early this afternoon. Expect this band to set more west the east through the afternoon from Sauk/Iowa Counties through northern Milwaukee/Ozaukee counties. Generally expect the 1-3 inch accumulations to fall within this corridor. Given the forcing being 850-700mb frontogenesis banding along with reports upstream, could not rule out seeing totals exceed 3 inches. Main concern with this band will be the drops in visibility of less than 1 mile along with quick accumulations of packable snow leaning toward the drier side. Thus resulting in slick travel conditions, especially for elevated and untreated surfaces. Given the band fairly progressive movement along with trends of lower QPF as drier Arctic air pushes in from the north, think that is enough to keep totals in the 1-3 inch range and below winter weather advisory level for our neck of the woods. However, still cannot rule out a short-fused issuance, especially if the band sits over an area longer than expected with totals nearing 4 inches. Otherwise areas across our east central counties from Marquette through Sheboygan may still see some light snow, but drier air for the strong Arctic high to the north will limit accumulating snow too far north. But still could see accumulations generally around an inch for southern portions of the counties with less than an inch the further north you go. Areas south of the band (south of I-94) are bit more saturated and will also see some snow accumulations, but generally around an inch or so as the forcing remains to the north. Expect the band of frontogenesis to wobble through southern WI through the afternoon before departing in the evening as the shortwave trough lifts east. However, looking to see northeasterly flow set up off of Lake Michigan through the evening and tonight. This looks be enough convergence to form a lake effect band of snow given delta T's from Lake Michigan and temps aloft around 13C. While this is borderline threshold for lake effect snow, especially as the synoptic forcing shifts east, still is a potential to see additional snowfall for southeastern WI through tonight and picking up an additional inch or two, depending on where/if the LES band sets up. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 215 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Sunday through Saturday: High pressure builds in behind the snow for Sunday with drier and quiet conditions. Looking at temps in the upper 40s to lower 30s. Then southerly flow and milder temps return to southern WI for the start of the week as high pressure slides into the eastern Great Lakes. The milder trend will continue through much of the week with near normal through midweek and the potential for above normal temps continues through the end of the week. Accompanying this milder pattern will be a bit more activity with periodic precip chances beginning Monday night into Tuesday. Continue to see models and ensemble hint at a mid-level disturbance traverse across the Midwest as low-level WAA builds in from the south. Still some question on precip type with this system being in between the departing colder airmass and ahead of a warmer one. Thus expect snow to wintry overnight Monday transition to more of a wintry to rain into Tuesday. Additional mid-level troughs are expected to trek across the region midweek through the end of the week, but continue to see timing and track difference between ensembles/models. Nevertheless milder temps and increase PoPs chances expected through the end of the week. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 West to east orientated band of snow is setting up across southern WI this afternoon bringing lower visibility (less than 1sm) and ceilings (1-3kft) where the snow rates (around a 0.5 in/hr or more at times) are heaviest. expect the heaviest band with the greatest flight restriction to set up from DLL/LNR eastward through MSN and just north of UES/MKE. 1-3 inches of accumulation expected within this band through the afternoon and could see pockets of locally higher totals exceeding 3 inches with in this band. This type of banded snow can wobble and may see it actually shift south an impact more of UES and MKE. Otherwise outside of the moderate/heavy band will still see light snow with lower ceiling to around MVFR along with reduced visibilities around 4-6sm and accumulations up to an inch. Will see the snow band work its way through southern WI through the afternoon and gradually depart to the east through the evening with some lingering MVFR ceilings toward the lakeshore terminals. Also could see some additional snow for MKE and ENW as a potential for a light lake effect snow band sets up this evening into tonight. ENW has the better potential to be impacted by this additional band, but still some uncertainty on where and if it will set up in southeast WI. Otherwise, high pressure builds in overnight bringing drier conditions, improving ceilings and lighter winds that will continue into Sunday. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 215 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Low pressure continues to lift northeast this afternoon with breezy northerly winds lingering across the lake through tonight. Then a strong Arctic high pressure builds across the Upper Midwest into Sunday and gradually works it way east across the Upper Great Lakes through Monday. Expect lighter winds to accompany this high pressure and eventually turn southerly Monday into midweek. Expect winds to turn more east-southeast through midweek as a low pressure system develops and lift in from the Plains. For the nearshore waters, waves may approach small craft conditions at times later tonight into Sunday morning south of North Point Lighthouse, and again Monday afternoon into Tuesday north of Port Washington. Additional small craft conditions may develop at times through the end of the week. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063 until 6 PM Saturday. Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ064-WIZ065 until 8 PM Saturday. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee