053 FXUS63 KMKX 302048 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 248 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread light snow (0.5 - 1.5 inch) late this afternoon and evening for all of southern WI with highest amounts over ern and central WI. - Another round of light snow late Wednesday morning and afternoon with amounts ranging from a dusting to under 1 inch. Best chance for snow amounts around an inch will be south of Madison. - Single digit temps and sub-zero wind chills (-5F to -15F) expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued 248 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Tonight through Thursday: An initial round of light snow has mostly fizzled out but new development, from a stronger shortwave trough currently over ne MN, is occurring across nrn and central WI. The upper wave will quickly track to east central WI by early this evening then to the border of lower MI with Ohio and nw IN by 06Z Wed. A wnwly LLJ of 40 kt will nose sewd from se MN into sw WI ahead of the upper wave; thereby enhancing warm advection over all of srn WI, and generating 850 mb frontogenesis over ern WI. Thus the better lift and snowfall rates will be late this afternoon and early evening. Overall expect QPF (0.1 or less) and snowfall to still be light and will range from 1/2 inch or less of snow accum over sw WI to 1.5 inches toward east central WI. Will continue to message the snowfall and potential travel hazards for the late afternoon and evening commute. The snow will then end from west to east around 01-05Z Wed. Yet another stronger shortwave trough will then track sewd over Ontario and the nrn Great Lakes on Wed in response to an incredibly deep cyclone of 953 MB, which will occlude and retrograde across nrn Quebec and Hudson Bay through Thu. A polar cold front will accompany the aforementioned upper wave and will shift swd across the region from late Wed AM into the afternoon. Low to mid level frontogenesis along a strong tropospheric temperatures gradient will likely generate more light snow during this time. The Fgen values are fairly low and believe snow accums will remain light. Cold advection to then prevail Wed nt then slow down on Thu as high pressure tracks from srn MN to the Ohio River Valley. Lows New Year's morning will range from 1 below to 6 above zero with high temps climbing into the teens. Wind chills will bottom out at 5 below to 15 below zero around sunrise New Year's Day. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 248 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Thursday night through Tuesday: Troughing over the northeastern United States and eastern Canada and northwest flow will keep us cold and dry to start the extended period. Overnight lows Thursday night through Saturday night will range from the single digits to low 10s with daytime temps Friday and Saturday in the upper teens to low 20s. This will be accompanied by high pressure arching from North Dakota into the eastern Corn Belt. Temperatures moderate toward normal in the mid to upper 20s on Sunday as the center of the high pressure passes over the state and moves southeast into Indiana, allowing for south winds to return. Sunday evening, the NBM feathers slight chance PoPs (10 to 20%) into the area as global models vary widely on the placement of a passing, WAA-driven wave. The current spread for the expected snow band is as far south as the WI/IL border to as far north as Lake Superior, so nothing is set in stone for this wave at this time. Otherwise the start of next week looks quiet with temperatures remaining around normal. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 248 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Light snow and MVFR Cigs and Vsbys, with periods of 1SM -SN, to develop late this afternoon and last into the evening. The snow will end late this evening with areas of MVFR Cigs continuing then more light snow possible for Wednesday. Vsbys with the snow on Wednesday could drop to 1-2SM at times. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 248 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Modest west to northwest winds will prevail this afternoon and tonight as strong low pressure remains over Quebec and a weak cold front moves across Lake Michigan. The strong low over Quebec will then move over eastern Hudson Bay for Wednesday into Thursday which will aid in moving a stronger cold front across Lake Michigan. Thus brisk northwest winds and moderate freezing spray is expected for Wednesday through Thursday morning. A few gale force wind gusts will be possible over far northern Lake Michigan Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Modest to brisk west to northwest winds will then continue the remainder of the week. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Wednesday afternoon and night from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor, but confidence is low at this time. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee