806 FXUS63 KMKX 301800 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1200 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread light snow (0.5 - 1.5 inch) this afternoon and evening for all of southern WI with highest amounts over ern and central WI. - Another round of light snow Wednesday afternoon/evening with amounts ranging from a dusting to under 1 inch. Best chance for snow amounts around an inch will be for southwestern WI. - Single digit temps and sub-zero wind chills (-5F to -15F) expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning && .UPDATE... Issued 1200 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 An initial round of light snow via a vorticity maximum and low to mid level warm advection is spreading ewd across srn WI. A stronger shortwave trough currently over se Manitoba will quickly track to east central WI by 00Z Wed then to the border of lower MI with Ohio and nw IN by 06Z Wed. A wnwly LLJ of 40-45 kt will nose sewd from se MN into sw WI ahead of the upper wave; thereby enhancing warm advection over all of srn WI, and generating 850 mb frontogenesis over ern WI. Thus the better lift and snowfall rates will be late afternoon and early evening. Overall expect QPF (0.1 or less) and snowfall to still be light and will range from 1/2 inch of snow accum over sw WI to 1.5 inches toward east central WI. Will continue to message the snowfall and potential travel hazards for the afternoon and evening commute. The snow will then end from west to east around 01-05Z Wed. Gehring && .SHORT TERM... Issued 330 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Today and Tonight: Some isolated, lingering flurries along and just west of the Kettle Moraine this morning but should continue to diminish over the next hour or so. Otherwise upper-level northwesterly flow pattern prevails across the region today. This along with high pressure working across the region will bring chilly and below normal temps to southern WI. However, will gradually see northwesterly winds turn more west- southwest through the day as the surface high slides further south into the southern Plains. Will see temps gradually warm into the lower 20s this afternoon, but fall into the teens to low 20s overnight tonight after the snow . Meanwhile a mid-level shortwave trough is progged to works its way down across the Upper Midwest through the afternoon and evening. Given the synoptic forcing from the mid-level dCVA paired with low- level WAA, 35-45kt LLJ, and a surface trough/cold front aligning with a slug of Pacific moisture, will bring a round (50-70% chances) of light snow across the area. Models agree on a this activity moving into southern WI around/after 18z and exit southeast by 03z-06z. Overall, HREF and other CAMs only suggest lighter QPF of about a few hundredths to under a tenth of an inch with this system and with SLR ranging from 13:1-17:1, looking at snow amounts of 0.5- 1.0 inch across much of the the CWA. However given the forcing, could not rule out seeing a localized pockets of higher snowfall above an inch along and just west of the Kettle Moraine given a 20-40% probability based off the 00z NBM as well as the 00z EPS ensembles. So could see some minor impacts to the afternoon/early evening commute. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 330 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Wednesday through Monday: Wednesday is the next opportunity to see another round of light snow across portions of southern WI. We are looking at another mid-level shortwave trough digging down in the upper-level northwest flow pairing with another slug of Pacific moisture. Again looking at lighter snowfall amounts ranging from a dusting to under an inch, but better chances look to be for southwestern portion of WI (south of line from WI Dells to Kenosha) following additional forcing from a surface low moving through the Dakotas into the lower Missouri River Valley. Mainly expecting this activity to move through during Wednesday afternoon into the early evening. Following this round of snow will be a reinforcing cold front and push of Arctic air into WI overnight. Models have been consistently showing this trend over the past few days with single digit to just below zero lows Wednesday night and high temps in the teens for Thursday. While the colder trend is expected to continue through the end of the week with below normal temps, it is looking drier as high pressure moves through the region Thursday with another weak cold front passage on Friday. Then the weekend is still trending milder as the northwesterly flow finally shifts east Saturday with the incoming ridge from central CONUS. However pattern does hint at becoming more active later this weekend with a series of mid-level disturbance traversing the Upper Midwest into the start of next week. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 1200 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Light snow and MVFR Cigs and Vsbys, with periods of 1SM -SN, to develop this afternoon and last into the evening. The snow will end late this evening with areas of MVFR Cigs continuing then more light snow possible for Wednesday. Vsbys with the snow on Wednesday could drop to 1-2SM at times. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 1200 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Modest west to northwest winds will prevail today and tonight as strong low pressure remains over Quebec and a weak cold front moves across Lake Michigan. The strong low over Quebec will then move over eastern Hudson Bay for Wednesday into Thursday which will aid in moving a stronger cold front across Lake Michigan. Thus brisk northwest winds and moderate freezing spray is expected for Wednesday through Thursday morning. Wind gusts should remain just below gale force. Modest to brisk west to northwest winds will then continue the remainder of the week. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor for Wednesday afternoon and evening, but confidence is low at this time. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee