011 FXUS63 KMKX 300933 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 333 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A round of widespread light snow (0.5 - 1 inch) across southern WI this afternoon into the early evening. Areas along the Kettle Moraine have a low to medium potential (20-40%) to see snow totals above an inch. - Another sound of light snow Wednesday afternoon/evening with amounts ranging from a dusting to under 1 inch. Best chance for snow amounts around an inch will be for southwestern WI. - Single digit temps and sub-zero wind chills (-5F to -15F) expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued 330 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Today and Tonight: Some isolated, lingering flurries along and just west of the Kettle Moraine this morning but should continue to diminish over the next hour or so. Otherwise upper-level northwesterly flow pattern prevails across the region today. This along with high pressure working across the region will bring chilly and below normal temps to southern WI. However, will gradually see northwesterly winds turn more west- southwest through the day as the surface high slides further south into the southern Plains. Will see temps gradually warm into the lower 20s this afternoon, but fall into the teens to low 20s overnight tonight after the snow . Meanwhile a mid-level shortwave trough is progged to works its way down across the Upper Midwest through the afternoon and evening. Given the synoptic forcing from the mid-level dCVA paired with low- level WAA, 35-45kt LLJ, and a surface trough/cold front aligning with a slug of Pacific moisture, will bring a round (50-70% chances) of light snow across the area. Models agree on a this activity moving into southern WI around/after 18z and exit southeast by 03z-06z. Overall, HREF and other CAMs only suggest lighter QPF of about a few hundredths to under a tenth of an inch with this system and with SLR ranging from 13:1-17:1, looking at snow amounts of 0.5- 1.0 inch across much of the the CWA. However given the forcing, could not rule out seeing a localized pockets of higher snowfall above an inch along and just west of the Kettle Moraine given a 20-40% probability based off the 00z NBM as well as the 00z EPS ensembles. So could see some minor impacts to the afternoon/early evening commute. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 330 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Wednesday through Monday: Wednesday is the next opportunity to see another round of light snow across portions of southern WI. We are looking at another mid-level shortwave trough digging down in the upper-level northwest flow pairing with another slug of Pacific moisture. Again looking at lighter snowfall amounts ranging from a dusting to under an inch, but better chances look to be for southwestern portion of WI (south of line from WI Dells to Kenosha) following additional forcing from a surface low trekkingdown trough the Dakotas into the lower Missouri River Valley. Mainly expecting this activity to move through during Wednesday afternoon into the early evening. Following this round of snow will be a reinforcing cold front and push of Arctic air into WI overnight. Models have been consistently showing this trend over the past few days with single digit to just below zero lows Wednesday night and high temps in the teens for Thursday. While the colder trend is expected to continue through the end of the week with below normal temps, it is looking drier as high pressure moves through the region Thursday with another weak cold front passage on Friday. Then the weekend is still trending milder as the northwesterly flow finally shifts east Saturday with the incoming ridge from central CONUS. However pattern does hint at becoming more active later this weekend with a series of mid-level disturbance traversing the Upper Midwest into the start of next week. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 330 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Widespread VFR conditions have develop early this morning with the influence of the high pressure passing to our southwest. Still seeing some gusty northwesterly winds this morning and will linger into the afternoon before turning more west to west- southwest ahead of a incoming cold front. There will be a quick bout of widespread light snow this afternoon into the early evening across much of southern WI. Overall expecting half an inch to an inch of new snowfall between 18z-03z with a few spots along and west of the Kettle Moraine (such as UES) potentially seeing amounts above an inch. Accompanying this activity will be lower visibility and lower ceilings to IVR/MVFR levels. While some light flurries may linger overnight tonight into Wednesday, generally expecting drier and improving flight conditions before another round of light snow Wednesday afternoon. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 330 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Winds have fallen below gales over the open waters, but gusty northwesterly winds and moderate freezing spray concerns continue this morning as Lake Michigan sits between strong low pressure meandering over Quebec and a high pressure moving south across the Plains. Will then see the gusty winds shift more westerly this afternoon as an area of weak low pressure and cold front slides down across the region. Northwesterly winds return overnight behind the frontal passage with a few gale force gusts possible across the far northern portions of the Lake. Will see another cold front move down across the Lake Wednesday with northwesterly winds prevailing through the end of the week. Behind the front, colder Arctic air will settle over the region as high pressure builds down across the Upper Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. Could see additional freezing spray concern through the end of the week given breezy winds and the colder airmass. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee