642 FXUS62 KMHX 292318 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 718 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Decreased temps and dewpoints a bit through the rest of this week. Increased seas south of Cape Hatteras through Tuesday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Seasonably warm conditions through the rest of this week. 2) Dangerously hot and humid conditions for this 4th of July weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak area of low pressure meandering off the NC coast will continue to slowly drift away from the region. Before that happens, light nerly flow and partly sunny conditions will make for seasonably pleasant temperatures the next several days. Highs will be in the mid/upr 80s inland to low 80s coast on Tuesday, and warm slowly into the 90 degree range inland by Wednesday. Despite the warming, relatively low TD's in the 60s will not make it feel much hotter, with heat indices no higher than the 90s through Thursday, possibly reaching around 100 by Friday as temps cont to warm through the 90s. Lows will be seasonable through the week, with readings in the low/mid 60s the next couple of nights inland, with low 70s coast, rising to the mid/upr 60s inland by the end of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...The advertised heat and humidity build into ENC from the north and west this weekend. Temps have backed off some with latest 29/12Z guidance, with readings staying below record values. Despite this, high impact heat and humidity is expected, as the peak of it will be during the busy 4th of July holiday weekend (Saturday through Monday) with highs expected to reach well into the 90s inland, possibly reaching 100 in some locales, with upper 80s to low 90s beaches. The combination of the heat and humidity will push heat indices towards the 105 degree mark or slightly higher this weekend. Overnight lows will also be warm due to the increased TD's, with lows around 80 near the coast, and mid 70s interior. NWS probabilistic Heat Risk values for Saturday and Sunday are in the major (coast) to extreme (inland) range. The chance for extreme heat risk is around 60-80% inland on Saturday and Sunday with the compounding days and little relief during the nighttime periods. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts of time outside this weekend into early next week should monitor the forecast trends. With the ridge of high pressure building in, a cap will develop with little to no shower or thunderstorm relief esp on Saturday. On Sunday, the ridge may break down just enough for some scattered storms to develop mainly inland zones, but the chance for rain is only 20-30% at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An area of MVFR CIGs over the OBX this evening is expected to spread southwest tonight, and expand in coverage, across much of ENC. Guidance show a strong signal (50-70% chance) of sub-VFR CIGs at all TAF sites, including a risk of IFR conditions. Given ongoing sub-VFR obs across the OBX, the strong signal in guidance, and a favorable pattern for low CIGs, I opted to keep the TAFs pretty much as is. I made some slight timing adjustments based on the potential for low CIGs to arrive slightly later than originally forecast. The low CIGs are expected to mix out by mid-morning on Tuesday. Of note, though, some guidance suggests it may not be until early afternoon that conditions return to VFR. Outlook (Tuesday night through Sat): Dry weather is expected to prevail with pred VFR conditions, but could see patchy fog and low stratus each morning. Winds will be light through the period with high pres in vicinity. && .MARINE... Seas have been over-performing some within the developing northeasterly wind swell, especially for the waters from Cape Hatteras south. The seas forecast has been updated to account for this recent trend. This increased trend puts the southern coastal waters closer to Small Craft Advisory conditions, but it appears the greatest risk of 6ft+ seas will remain just outside of 20nm in those waters. Elsewhere, the Small Craft Advisory for the central waters still looks on-track. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The weak low offshore will cont to produce nerly winds of 15-20 kt through early Tue. Could see ocnl gusts to 25 kt esp for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Some 6 ft sets are still possible for the ctrl waters between Ocracoke and Oregon Inlet, and thus the SCA remains in effect for these areas. Otherwise, seas will cont at 2-5 ft for the remainder of the waters through Tue. Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): The Bermuda high becomes dominant mid to late week with light winds 5-15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for AMZ152-154. && $$ DISCUSSION...TL AVIATION...RM/TL MARINE...RM/TL