972 

FXUS62 KMHX 291900

AFDMHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC

300 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Decreased temps and dewpoints a bit through the rest of this 

week.



Updated Aviation Discussion



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Seasonably warm conditions through the rest of this week.



2) Dangerously hot and humid conditions for this 4th of July 

weekend into early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak area of low pressure meandering off the

NC coast will continue to slowly drift away from the region.

Before that happens, light nerly flow and partly sunny

conditions will make for seasonably pleasant temperatures the

next several days. Highs will be in the mid/upr 80s inland to low

80s coast on Tuesday, and warm slowly into the 90 degree range

inland by Wednesday. Despite the warming, relatively low TD's in

the 60s will not make it feel much hotter, with heat indices no

higher than the 90s through Thursday, possibly reaching around

100 by Friday as temps cont to warm through the 90s. Lows will

be seasonable through the week, with readings in the low/mid 60s

the next couple of nights inland, with low 70s coast, rising to

the mid/upr 60s inland by the end of the week.



KEY MESSAGE 2...The advertised heat and humidity build into ENC

from the north and west this weekend. Temps have backed off some

with latest 29/12Z guidance, with readings staying below record

values. Despite this, high impact heat and humidity is expected,

as the peak of it will be during the busy 4th of July holiday

weekend (Saturday through Monday) with highs expected to reach

well into the 90s inland, possibly reaching 100 in some locales,

with upper 80s to low 90s beaches. The combination of the heat

and humidity will push heat indices towards the 105 degree mark

or slightly higher this weekend. Overnight lows will also be

warm due to the increased TD's, with lows around 80 near the

coast, and mid 70s interior.



NWS probabilistic Heat Risk values for Saturday and Sunday are 

in the major (coast) to extreme (inland) range. The chance for 

extreme heat risk is around 60-80% inland on Saturday and 

Sunday with the compounding days and little relief during the

nighttime periods. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning 

on spending ample amounts of time outside this weekend into

early next week should monitor the forecast trends.



With the ridge of high pressure building in, a cap will develop

with little to no shower or thunderstorm relief esp on Saturday.

On Sunday, the ridge may break down just enough for some

scattered storms to develop mainly inland zones, but the chance

for rain is only 20-30% at this time.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MVFR strato cu was slow to lift this morning as ENC under nerly

flow regime on backside of offshore low pres. This will limit

afternoon shower and storm chances, and have only a vcsh mention

at KOAJ where best chances are for any rain. Elsewhere, chances

too slim for any mentionable rain. Winds will be light nerly

through the TAF pd with the low offshore. Tonight, another

of IFR cigs as low level moisture remains with low pres 

meandering offshore and subsidence inversion strengthening with

high pres moving in. Best chances for the lowered cigs are for 

KEWN, KOAJ, and KISO after 06Z tonight. Any low clouds lift by 

13-15Z Tue morning with VFR returning and cont light winds.



Outlook (Wed through Sat): Dry weather is expected to prevail 

with pred VFR conditions, but could see patchy fog and low 

stratus each morning. Winds will be light through the period 

with high pres in vicinity.



&&



.MARINE...

The weak low offshore will cont to produce nerly winds of 15-20

kt through early Tue. Could see ocnl gusts to 25 kt esp for the

coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Some 6 ft sets are still

possible for the ctrl waters between Ocracoke and Oregon Inlet,

and thus the SCA remains in effect for these areas. Otherwise,

seas will cont at 2-5 ft for the remainder of the waters

through Tue. 



Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): The Bermuda high becomes 

dominant mid to late week with light winds 5-15 kt and seas 

around 2-4 ft.



&&



.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT 

     Tuesday night for AMZ152-154.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...TL

AVIATION...TL

MARINE...TL